September 5, 2024
Prediction on the Current Account for South Africa
Consolidated international trade in South Africa is reflected in the current account balance, typically expressed as a ratio of economic activity (GDP) on a quarterly basis. This figure includes not only import and export data but also service payments to and from the rest of the world, as well as international income payments.
Service payments encompass transport services, travel services, telecommunications and IT services, and financial services. Income payments include dividends paid or received, interest payments, worker remittances, and royalties.
For the first quarter of 2024, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) reported the current account balance as -1.2% of GDP. This indicates that total payments for goods and services, including service and income payments, exceeded total exports of similar items. Our forecast for the second quarter suggests a slight deterioration in this ratio to -2.2%.