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Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider (FSP 46449) in terms of The Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (37 of 2002)
September 1, 2025

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

July 2025

In July 2025, credit demand grew by 5.8%, surpassing market expectations of just 5.0% for the month. Since the interest rate cuts began in September 2024, overall credit growth has gained momentum, with most subcategories recording increases in July.

However, mortgage advances and credit for fixed asset purchases remain subdued despite the ongoing interest rate cuts. Demand for property continues to be sluggish in South Africa, signalling low capital expenditure by households and businesses. High levels of consumer debt, stagnant wages, and rising living costs continue to constrain a recovery in this sector. Nevertheless, the full benefits of lower interest rates are expected to materialise later in 2025, as household disposable incomes improve — driven by positive market sentiment and the possibility of additional rate cuts by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB).

In July, instalment credit sales increased again by 0.8% month-on-month, with an annual growth rate of 7.5%. Over the past two years, consumers have increasingly relied on short-term credit to manage rising living expenses, reflected in an 8.9% increase in other loans and advances, up from 7.1% in June.

With inflation remaining favourable, further rate reductions are anticipated to boost disposable incomes, supporting increased demand for goods and fixed assets in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 and beyond.


More Coverage

September 2025
The South African International Liquidity Position, measured by Net Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves, showed growth in both USD and Rand terms for September 2025.
August 2025
In August 2025, credit demand grew by 5.9%, slightly below the anticipated market prediction of 6.0% for the month. Since the initiation of interest rate cuts in September 2024, there has been a noticeable acceleration in overall credit growth, with most subcategories showing increases, particularly in July.
August 2025
International trade measures South Africa’s demand for foreign goods and services relative to its demand for domestically produced products in the global market.
Unpacking the Undervaluation and Economic Implications
As of October 2025, the South African Rand is trading at R17.15 against the US Dollar, a significant figure in the context of an estimated average exchange rate of R18.20 from January to September 2025. Market analyses leveraging the Purchase Power Parity (PPP) exchange rate – calculated using inflation differentials between South Africa and the US from 2020 to 2025 – indicate that the Rand remains undervalued. This disparity suggests an alignment closer to R14.30 in a conservative estimation and potentially as low as R11.30, revealing a risk premium embedded in the current forex dynamics.
Bold and Radical Shift in Policies are required.
South Africa’s economy recorded modest growth of just 0.8% during the second quarter of 2025, continuing a pattern of sluggish expansion that has persisted over the past decade. With the economy still struggling to break free from its constraints, serious reforms and strategic policy adjustments are essential if South Africa is to achieve sustainable growth rates significantly higher than the current 0.8% average.
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