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Market Overviews

Retail Sales Performance

April 16, 2025
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Mining Production and Sales

April 16, 2025
In February 2025, mining activities in South Africa saw a significant decline of 9.6%, following a revised decrease of 1.5% in January 2025.
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Manufacturing Production

April 10, 2025
In February 2025, manufacturing production in South Africa declined by 3.2%, mirroring a similar contraction of 3.2% in January. This decrease was anticipated, as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped from 45.3 in January to 44.7 in February.
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Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves

April 7, 2025
The African International Liquidity Position, indicated by Net Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves, experienced growth in both U.S. dollar and Rand terms as of March 2025.
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Manufacturing Production

March 27, 2025
Manufacturing production in South Africa decreased by 3.3% in January 2025, following a 1.2% contraction in December 2024. This decline was anticipated, as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slipped from 46.2 in December to 45.3 in January.
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Mining Production and Sales

March 27, 2025
In January 2025, mining activities in South Africa experienced a 2.7% decline, following a 2.4% decrease in December.
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Retail Sales Performance

March 20, 2025
Retail sales in South Africa significantly surpassed market expectations in January 2025, rising by 7.0% year-on-year, well above the anticipated contraction of 1.8%. This unexpected growth suggests a resurgence in consumer demand, particularly notable as it follows a low base in 2024.
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Consumer Inflation

March 20, 2025
In February 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady at 3.2%, mirroring January’s figure and slightly below the anticipated 3.3%.
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A View on Company Profits

March 6, 2025
Company profitability is vital for investors and the government. In South Africa, the Gross Operating Surplus (GOS) indicates positive growth, with profits surpassing inflation in late 2024. Notable gains in the Agricultural sector (68.8%) contrast with modest growth in Mining and Personal Services, reflecting an optimistic economic outlook post-election.
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GDP, Economic Growth and Inflation

March 4, 2025
The South African economy showed resilience with a 0.6% growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, despite challenges. Key sectors like Agriculture and Finance thrived, and improved consumer demand signals optimism for 2025. With continued market confidence and government reforms, there is potential for significant economic advancement ahead.
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Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

March 3, 2025
In January 2025, credit demand rose by 4.6%, exceeding expectations, although overall demand is still modest. Interest rate cuts are expected to enhance property and asset purchases as disposable incomes improve. As consumers increasingly rely on credit, overall demand for goods and fixed assets is poised to rise throughout 2025
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Producer Price Inflation

March 3, 2025
In January 2025, producer price inflation rose modestly to 1.1%, with food and beverage costs contributing significantly. Despite ongoing deflation in some sectors, overall trends indicate contained costs, supporting stable inflation expectations. This bodes well for consumer inflation, suggesting a stable economic outlook as we move into 2025.
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Consumer Inflation

February 27, 2025
In January 2025, South Africa’s CPI data showed revised weightings, highlighting increased importance for food, water, and electricity. While inflation rose to 3.2%, it remains manageable. A recent 25 basis point interest rate cut by the MPC signals potential further reductions, offering hope for consumers, and stimulating economic demand.
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Retail Sales Performance

February 24, 2025
In December 2024, South Africa’s retail sales rose 3.1% year-on-year, surpassing expectations and indicating a rebound in consumer demand. The SACCI Business Confidence Index also increased, and recent interest rate cuts promise to further stimulate demand. Overall, this positive momentum supports economic growth heading into 2025.
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Employment Statistics in South Africa

February 18, 2025
The fourth quarter of 2024 shows promising employment trends in South Africa, with the unemployment rate falling from 32.1% to 31.9%. Formal non-agricultural jobs increased by 132,000, reflecting renewed economic confidence and a stable electricity supply, contributing to a more hopeful labour market.
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Mining Production and Sales

February 14, 2025
In December 2024, South Africa’s mining sector faced a slight decline of 2.4%, primarily due to drops in PGMs and gold. However, manganese ore and coal showed growth, contributing positively. Despite challenges, the sector remains crucial, employing 484,000 people and benefitting from supportive government efforts.
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Manufacturing Production December 2024 | Aluma Capital

Manufacturing Production

February 13, 2025
In 2024, South Africa’s manufacturing production declined by 1.2%, driven by lower output in key sectors, including motor vehicles and metal products. However, the food and beverages sector showed strong growth. Despite challenges, the sector remains vital, employing 1.6 million people. Business owners are cautiously optimistic, awaiting clarity on policy and potential investment opportunities.
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Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves for January 2025, Aluma Capital

South African Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves

February 7, 2025
In January 2025, South Africa’s liquidity position increased, with gold and foreign exchange reserves rising despite a slight Rand depreciation. The boost in gold prices and stable commodity values bode well for inflation expectations. While external factors may create volatility, key commodities support a positive economic outlook going forward
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International Trade and Trade Balance featured, Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

International Trade and Trade Balance

February 5, 2025
South Africa recorded a trade balance surplus of R15.46 billion in December 2024, where exports exceeded imports. While annual figures showed declines for both, there is optimism for 2025 as lower interest rates and easing infrastructure bottlenecks could enhance trade activity and support economic growth.
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Producer Price Inflation | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Producer Price Inflation

February 3, 2025
In December 2024, South Africa’s producer price inflation increased by 0.7%, with food and beverage costs rising by 4.2%. While some sectors show deflation, particularly in petroleum and chemicals, overall trends indicate stable inflation expectations. With controlled production costs, low consumer inflation is anticipated as we move into 2025.
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Interest Rate Cut | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

25 Basis Point Cut Interest Rate Cut

January 30, 2025
The interest rate has been cut by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations. The Reserve Bank remains cautiously optimistic, forecasting contained inflation and an economic growth projection of 2.0% in the medium term. Increased disposable income and stable electricity supply are positive signs, despite some supply challenges in mining and manufacturing.
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Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE) | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

January 30, 2025
In 2024, South Africa saw a 4.0% increase in credit extended by financial institutions, with December demand rising by 3.8%. While credit demand remains low, the 50-basis point interest rate cut should boost property and fixed asset purchases, enhancing disposable income and overall demand as we progress into 2025.
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Retail Sales Bag | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Retail Sales Performance

January 23, 2025
In November 2024, South Africa’s retail sales rose by 7.7%, surpassing the 5.5% forecast, indicating a resurgence in consumer demand, particularly during Black Friday. The SACCI Business Confidence Index increased, and potential interest rate cuts could further boost spending. Overall, this positive trend supports economic growth as the country moves into 2025.
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Consumer Inflation Increasing | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Consumer Inflation

January 22, 2025
In December, South Africa’s inflation increased slightly to 3.0%, driven primarily by rising costs in housing, services, and food. Despite these pressures, the Monetary Policy Committee’s recent rate cut of 25 basis points may ease financial burdens on consumers. Positive market sentiment and improved electricity supply suggest a stable inflation outlook ahead.
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Excavator Mining | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Mining Production and Sales

January 21, 2025
South Africa’s mining production fell by 0.9% in November 2024, with declines in gold, iron ore, coal, and diamonds. However, sectors like Platinum Group Metals and chromium ore showed growth. Mineral sales rose by 8.1%, driven by significant increases in gold and coal sales, reflecting a recovering and resilient mining sector poised for future stability and growth.
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Featured Sales | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

A View on Demand in the Economy: Retail Sales Performance

December 13, 2024
In 2024, South Africa’s retail sales rose by 6.3%, significantly surpassing the expected 2.1% increase, indicating a rebound in consumer demand. Key contributors included substantial growth in general dealers and household goods. Lower inflation and a potential interest rate cut could further enhance consumer optimism and spending moving forward.
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Inflation Featured | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Consumer Inflation

December 13, 2024
Inflation in South Africa rose slightly from 2.8% in October to 2.9% in November, driven mainly by housing and utilities, food, and miscellaneous goods. Despite price increases, there are signs of slowing growth. The MPC’s recent 25 basis point interest rate cut may ease financial pressures on consumers, supporting future demand and economic momentum.
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Manufacturing image | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Manufacturing Production

December 13, 2024
In 2024, South Africa’s manufacturing production rose by 0.8%, following a 1.4% increase in September. Key contributors included significant growth in petroleum, food, and basic iron and steel sectors. Despite a decline in the motor vehicle sector, the manufacturing industry remains vital, employing 1.6 million people and driving economic growth.
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Mining Equipment | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Mining Production and Sales

December 10, 2024
Mining South Africa rose by 1.4% in October 2024, building on a solid 4.9% growth from September. Key contributors included significant increases in iron ore, platinum group metals, and diamonds. Mineral sales also increased by 1.6%. Despite some challenges, the sector is rebounding strongly, supporting over 484,000 jobs. With improved economic confidence and a focus on stabilising production, the future looks promising for South Africa’s mining industry.
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Gold Bars | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

South African Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves

December 6, 2024
In 2024, South Africa’s International Liquidity Position showed a decline in U.S. dollar reserves but a slight increase in rand terms due to the rand’s depreciation. Gold reserves dropped following a 4.5% price decrease, though prices remain significantly higher than last year. Key commodities provide insights into inflation and potential interest rate decisions by the South African Reserve Bank in January 2025. However, the return of former President Trump may create volatility for the rand amid potential shifts in economic policy.
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Coins on Table | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Gross Operating Surplus

December 6, 2024
Company is crucial for investors and the government, influencing investment potential and tax revenue. The latest data from Statistics South Africa shows a 2.9% quarterly decrease in Gross Operating Surplus (GOS) but a 4.5% annual increase, indicating profitability growth. Notably, sectors like mining and transport exceeded inflation rates, signaling positive market sentiment and potential for increased investment in South Africa over the medium to long term.
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Food Supplies | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

South African Economic Performance

December 6, 2024
South’s economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.3% in Q3 2024, with six out of ten sectors growing. The agricultural sector significantly declined by 28.8%. Positively, manufacturing and finance showed growth, contributing to overall resilience. However, consumer demand and elevated prices in the economy remain concerns, while expected growth for 2024 is estimated at just 0.7%. Addressing policy clarity and structural reforms could enhance business confidence and stimulate growth.
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Sector Credit Card Image | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

November 29, 2024
In October 2024, credit extended by South African financial institutions rose by 4.3%, with increasing demand in most categories, despite remaining low overall. Recent interest rate cuts totaling 50 basis points may enhance property and fixed asset purchases in 2025 as consumers gain more disposable income, potentially boosting overall demand.
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Man looking at Pricing increase October 2024 | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Producer Price Inflation

November 28, 2024
Producer Price Inflation in South Africa saw a deflation of 0.7% in October 2024, exceeding analysts’ expectations. This decline was driven by significant price drops in coke, petroleum, and related products. While overall inflation may remain low in the short term, rising costs for intermediate goods and administered prices raise concerns. Persistently low inflation could lead to interest rate cuts, potentially boosting consumer and business demand in 2025.
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Interest Rate % | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Another 25 Basis Point Interest Rate Cut

November 21, 2024
The South African Reserve Bank cut the interest rate by 25 basis points, contrary to some expectations for a larger reduction. Inflation remains within the target range of 3% to 6%, and positive signs for growth include rising confidence and stable electricity supply. Despite subdued manufacturing production, increased disposable income supports demand, contributing to a gradual economic recovery.
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Person holding retail Price Tag | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

A View on Demand in the Economy: Retail Sales Performance

November 20, 2024
Retail sales in South Africa rose 0.9% in September 2024, surpassing expectations of a 0.7% decline, signalling a modest recovery in consumer demand. Growth was led by general dealers, while textiles and clothing stores saw a 5.5% contraction. Despite tight budgets, anticipated interest rate cuts could further boost consumer confidence and demand.
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Retail Cash Till | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Consumer Inflation

November 20, 2024
Inflation in South Africa fell from 3.8% in September to 2.8% in October 2024, with monthly deflation of 0.1%. Rising prices in housing, food, and services continue to strain household budgets. Positive news includes the US Fed’s rate cut, allowing for potential interest rate reductions by the SARB, which could boost demand and economic growth.
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Mining Equipment Mining | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Manufacturing Production and Sales

November 15, 2024
South Africa’s mining production increased by 4.7% in September 2024, primarily driven by iron ore, PGMs, and manganese. Mineral sales rose 8.0%, led by significant gains in manganese and gold. Despite challenges in electricity supply and infrastructure, the sector is rebounding, supported by improved economic confidence.
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Tire Conveyor Belt | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Manufacturing Production

November 13, 2024
In September 2024, South Africa’s manufacturing sector showed resilience despite a 0.8% annual decline, supported by a notable PMI increase. While challenges persist, sectors like food and beverages and petroleum products demonstrated growth, highlighting potential for recovery and ongoing job creation in this vital industry.
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Homeless Person looking for Job | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Employment Statistics in South Africa

November 12, 2024
In Q3 2024, South Africa’s unemployment rate decreased from 33.5% to 32.1%, with the expanded rate falling to 41.9%. Formal non-agricultural employment rose by over 200,000, while 294,000 new jobs were created. Despite some sector losses, overall trends reflect a growing economic confidence and improved employment conditions.
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Melted Gold Bars

South African Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves

November 7, 2024
In October 2024, South Africa’s International Liquidity Position improved in dollar terms, with gold reserves rising due to a 5.1% increase in gold prices. While foreign exchange reserves remained stable, the Rand showed slight volatility. Key commodities like gold and platinum signal positive trends for the mining industry, but potential geopolitical tensions and U.S. elections may impact future volatility and inflation expectations.
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Private Sector Credit Extensions Graph | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE): October 2024

November 1, 2024
In September 2024, South Africa’s credit from financial institutions rose by 4.6%, nearing expectations, with strong demand for most credit types. Instalment credit sales grew by 0.5%, highlighting consumers’ adaptability amid rising living costs. Anticipated interest rate cuts may further enhance property and asset acquisition in the future!
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Price Inflation Graph | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Producer Price Inflation

October 31, 2024
In September 2024, South Africa’s producer price inflation slowed to a 1.0% annual increase, down from 2.8% in August, with a monthly deflation of 0.3%. Key contributors included rising costs in food, beverage, and intermediate goods, while mining costs fell. Concerns remain over elevated water and electricity prices exceeding the SARB’s target range.
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Consumer Inflation Report | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

CPI falling below forecasts

October 23, 2024
Inflation slowed markedly from 4.4% in August 2024 to 3.8% in September, slowing more aggressively than market expectations of 4.1%. Month-on-month growth was minimal at just 0.1%.
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Retail Sales Change Graph | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

A View on Demand in the Economy: Retail Sales Performance

October 18, 2024
In August 2024, South Africa’s retail sales grew by 3.2% annually, exceeding the expected 1.0% increase. This indicates a positive shift in consumer demand, driven by lower inflation and improved economic sentiment. Growth was primarily led by general dealers, which posted a 4.6% rise, contributing 2.1 percentage points to the overall growth, while hardware retailers saw a decline of 4.5%.
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Manufacturing Production Change Graph | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Manufacturing Production

October 10, 2024
South Africa’s manufacturing production fell by 1.2% annually in August 2024, attributed to declines in motor vehicle and basic iron production. While food and beverages grew by 5.8%, businesses remain cautious, holding large cash reserves. Companies are waiting for the Government of National Unity to clarify industrial policies and implement promised reforms.
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Mining Production Volume Difference Graph | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Mining Production and Sales

October 10, 2024
Mining South Africa rose by 0.3% in August 2024, led by increases in manganese, PGMs, and chromium ore. However, declines in iron ore and gold production tempered the growth. Mineral sales fell by 9.9% annually, driven by a sharp drop in gold sales. The sector remains crucial for the economy, employing around 457,000 people.
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Gold Foreign Exchange Graph | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves

October 7, 2024
In a rapidly evolving global economy, understanding the dynamics of South Africa’s International Liquidity Position and commodity markets has never been more crucial. As we navigate rising inflation, fluctuating currency values, and geopolitical uncertainties, the implications for investors, businesses, and policymakers are profound. Discover how the recent trends in gold, oil, platinum, and coal are shaping the economic landscape and what the future holds for the rand and the broader South African market. Join us as we delve into the latest data and insights that could impact your financial decisions and strategies in the months ahead.
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Private Sector Credit Extension Graph | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

September 30, 2024
In August 2024, South Africa saw a 5.0% rise in demand for credit, surpassing expectations of 4.0%. While instalment credit sales and loans showed growth amid increasing financial pressures, asset accumulation via mortgage advances remains low. The recent interest rate cut could stimulate demand for properties in the coming months.
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Producer Price Inflation Year over Year Difference | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Producer Price Inflation

September 26, 2024
Producer Price Inflation came increased by only 2.8%, much lower than market expectation of 4.0% for the month of August 2024. The lower-than-expected increase in producer inflation bode well for general inflation in the months to follow, but caution should be taken by the price increases in intermediate goods, especially price increases of administered goods and services such as water -and electricity prices and other municipal services that could affect inflation rates going forward.
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Demand on Economic Graph | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Retail Sales Performance

September 23, 2024
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Consumer Inflation Year Over Year Difference | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Consumer Inflation slowing down further

September 18, 2024
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Business Consumer Confidence Graph | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Market Sentiment: Consumer Confidence

September 17, 2024
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Gross Operating Surplus Graph | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Gross Operating Surplus

September 12, 2024
Gross Operating Surplus impacts both investors’ returns and government tax revenue, influencing policy decisions and the broader economy.
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Silver Coins on Statistic Paper | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Producer Price Inflation

August 29, 2024
Producer price inflation was just released by Stats SA and moderated even further than most market analysts expected for the month of July. This moderation in producer inflation bodes well for overall inflation in the economy and interest rate decisions that the SARB may take in the following months to come.
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