Skip to main content
Invest Now
012 012 5270
Copyright © Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd. All rights reserved.
Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider (FSP 46449) in terms of The Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (37 of 2002)
Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
November 1, 2024

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE): October 2024

In September 2024, South Africa’s credit from financial institutions rose by 4.6%, nearing expectations, with strong demand for most credit types. Instalment credit sales grew by 0.5%, highlighting consumers’ adaptability amid rising living costs. Anticipated interest rate cuts may further enhance property and asset acquisition in the future!

Credit extended by financial institutions in South Africa grew by 4.6% in September, following a 4.9% increase in August 2024. This growth was slightly below the market expectation of 4.8% for September. Demand for credit increased across most sub-categories, except for mortgage advances, which experienced a small contraction. This category is sensitive to interest rate changes, and a reduction in rates is anticipated to stimulate growth in the coming months, as households and businesses will have more disposable income after a predicted interest rate cut in November.

Instalment credit sales rose by 0.5% in September, up from 0.4% in the previous month, while this category saw a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. Over the past 24 months, it has become clear that consumers are increasingly relying on short-term credit to manage rising financial pressures and the escalating cost of living. This trend is further evidenced by a 5.0% rise in loans and other advances.

Asset accumulation through property and fixed asset purchases remains modest, with mortgage advances growing by 3.1% in September, slightly up from 3.0% the previous month. The growth rate for mortgage advances has notably decreased in the latter part of 2023, largely due to the impact of higher interest rates on the property sector. The expected 25-basis point reduction in interest rates, along with another likely cut in November 2024, should enhance demand for properties and fixed assets. Notably, only when lower rates are implemented across the economy will we see a significant increase in disposable income and fixed asset acquisitions.

Back to News

More Coverage

South Africa is trapped in severe economic stagnation, facing a projected 1.0% growth rate for 2026, 33.6% unemployment, and sharp contractions in mining (-12.7%) and manufacturing (-4.3%). Exposed to global fuel shocks via depleted reserves and >R12.00/litre pump levies, the nation is also caught in a fiscal spiral where national debt nears 80% of GDP and interest payments exceed R1 billion daily. Escaping this trap requires four urgent structural reforms: halting interest rate hikes for supply-side inflation, replacing rigid B-BBEE quotas with job-creation incentives, scrapping Expropriation Without Compensation (EWC), and deregulating Transnet’s logistics corridors.

Mining Production and Sales for August 2026

South Africa’s mining sector remains a vital source of jobs, foreign exchange and economic growth, but August’s sharp fall in mining output and sales highlights the mounting pressure on the industry. Rising fuel and energy costs, policy uncertainty and growing trade challenges are weighing on producers, even as firm gold prices and temporary US tariff exemptions offer some relief. Read the full report for a closer look at the latest figures, the forces shaping the sector and what they could mean for mining’s future in South Africa.

MACROECONOMIC & INVESTMENT INSIGHTS | OCTOBER 2026

A $100-plus oil price, a weaker rand and record fuel hikes are putting South Africa’s economy under mounting pressure, while strategic reserves offer little protection. This report examines how imported inflation is squeezing households and businesses, why higher interest rates may do little to tackle its root causes, and how sluggish growth and rising debt are tightening the fiscal squeeze. It also explores the stakes for trade with the United States and AGOA, and the policy choices that could restore investor confidence, unlock growth and put the country on a more resilient path.

International Trade and Trade Balance – August 2026

South Africa recorded a trade surplus of R20.4 billion in August 2026, as exports continued to outpace imports. Export growth has exceeded import growth over the first eight months of the year, reflecting subdued domestic demand among businesses and consumers. But with higher fuel prices and tighter monetary policy expected to weigh on spending, demand is likely to recover only gradually. Read the full report for a closer look at the trade figures and what they could mean for South Africa’s economy in the months ahead.

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE): August 2026

South Africa’s credit market is showing surprising resilience, with credit demand rising by 7.5% in August 2026 despite renewed interest-rate pressure, elevated inflation and mounting household costs. While mortgage advances continued to grow, the fragile recovery in the property market highlights the strain caused by subdued investment, high debt levels and rising municipal and energy expenses. At the same time, sluggish instalment credit growth and continued reliance on short-term borrowing reveal how consumers are navigating increasingly difficult financial conditions. With higher oil prices, geopolitical risks and further SARB tightening adding to the pressure, this report examines what the latest credit trends reveal about household finances, business confidence and the broader South African economy.