Skip to main content
Invest Now
012 012 5270
Copyright © Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd. All rights reserved.
Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider (FSP 46449) in terms of The Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (37 of 2002)
Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
October 31, 2024

Producer Price Inflation

In September 2024, South Africa’s producer price inflation slowed to a 1.0% annual increase, down from 2.8% in August, with a monthly deflation of 0.3%. Key contributors included rising costs in food, beverage, and intermediate goods, while mining costs fell. Concerns remain over elevated water and electricity prices exceeding the SARB’s target range.

In September 2024, producer price inflation experienced a significant slowdown. The annual increase in producer inflation was recorded at 1.0%, down from 2.8% in August, with a monthly deflation of 0.3%. Production costs for food and beverage items rose by 3.8% in September, contributing 1.1 percentage points to the month’s overall producer inflation. Additionally, the categories of metals, machinery, equipment, and computing reported lower-than-expected price increases, climbing 3.4% year-over-year compared to 3.5% in the previous month, and adding 0.5 percentage points to total producer inflation.

Several segments within the producer price inflation basket experienced deflation once again. Significant declines were noted in the coke, petroleum, chemicals, rubber, and plastic products categories, which fell by 2.1% year-on-year, leading to a reduction of 0.5 percentage points in overall producer inflation.

Production costs for intermediate goods saw a slight increase from 4.2% in August to 4.8% in September, with no month-on-month price escalation. The main contributors to the annual increase included the chemicals, rubber, and plastic products category, which rose by 8.1% in September, adding 2.5 percentage points to total intermediate producer inflation, and basic and fabricated metals, which increased by 3.6%, contributing an additional 1.7 percentage points. Meanwhile, the costs of water and electricity remained elevated, with a 9.8% annual rise in September, up from 7.1% the previous month.

In the primary sector, mining costs further contracted by 4.8% following a contraction of 1.7% in August. In contrast, the agricultural sector reported a 3.6% increase in production costs, a decrease from 6.1% in August.

Overall, the trend in producer price inflation is positive for general inflation expectations in South Africa, as producer inflation serves as a leading indicator of overall inflation in the country’s economic landscape. However, the continued rise in prices for intermediate goods, especially for water and electricity, remains a concern since these rates exceed the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range of 3% to 6%. The current producer inflation figures suggest a potential reduction in overall consumer inflation in the coming months, which is favourable for our interest rate and demand forecasts for the remainder of 2024.

Back to News

More Coverage

International Trade and Trade Balance – August 2026

South Africa recorded a trade surplus of R20.4 billion in August 2026, as exports continued to outpace imports. Export growth has exceeded import growth over the first eight months of the year, reflecting subdued domestic demand among businesses and consumers. But with higher fuel prices and tighter monetary policy expected to weigh on spending, demand is likely to recover only gradually. Read the full report for a closer look at the trade figures and what they could mean for South Africa’s economy in the months ahead.

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE): August 2026

South Africa’s credit market is showing surprising resilience, with credit demand rising by 7.5% in August 2026 despite renewed interest-rate pressure, elevated inflation and mounting household costs. While mortgage advances continued to grow, the fragile recovery in the property market highlights the strain caused by subdued investment, high debt levels and rising municipal and energy expenses. At the same time, sluggish instalment credit growth and continued reliance on short-term borrowing reveal how consumers are navigating increasingly difficult financial conditions. With higher oil prices, geopolitical risks and further SARB tightening adding to the pressure, this report examines what the latest credit trends reveal about household finances, business confidence and the broader South African economy.

Producer Price Inflation – Aug 2026

South Africa’s producer price inflation eased to 5.0% year-on-year in August 2026, but persistent fuel and energy shocks continue to place pressure on the economy and keep inflation well above the South African Reserve Bank’s new 2%–4% target range. Although the pace of price increases has slowed, rising costs in petroleum, chemicals, metals, machinery, and intermediate goods, alongside elevated mining costs, suggest that inflationary pressures are still filtering through to businesses and consumers. With consumer inflation at 4.4% and the Reserve Bank having raised interest rates by 25 basis points, this report examines what the latest PPI trends mean for South Africa’s inflation outlook, interest-rate decisions, and the cost pressures likely to shape the economy in the months ahead.

MACROECONOMIC & POLICY BRIEFING

When the South African Reserve Bank unexpectedly tightened monetary policy by 25 basis points to 7.25%, pushing the prime lending rate to 10.75%, it aimed to anchor inflation against imported oil shocks, but at what cost to an already bleeding real economy? With South Africa’s GDP contracting by 0.2%, unemployment climbing to 33.6%, and mining and manufacturing output in reverse, our economic challenge is not an overheated consumer base, but a severe supply-side squeeze. Raising the cost of capital cannot lower global crude prices; instead, it delivers a direct hit to strained household balance sheets and further stifles already anaemic Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF). Dive into the full analysis to unpack why orthodox monetary tools miss the mark in an economy rationing out of necessity, what Governor Lesetja Kganyago’s latest guidance reveals about the interest rate path ahead, and how corporate leaders and investors must position their capital to navigate South Africa’s “higher-for-longer” reality.

Consumer Inflation – August 2026

South Africa’s August 2026 inflation data present a complex outlook: headline CPI rose to 4.4%, remaining below market expectations yet above the upper limit of the inflation target range, while services inflation continued to climb, and fuel and transport costs exerted further pressure on households and businesses. With the economy contracting, international oil prices rising and global uncertainties, including Middle East tensions and tariff disputes, continuing to weigh on the rand and domestic prices, attention is now focused on the South African Reserve Bank’s next interest-rate decision. Read the full report for an analysis of the factors driving inflation, the risks facing the economy and what the latest developments could mean for consumers, businesses and monetary policy in the months ahead.