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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
August 14, 2025

Mining Production and Sales

June 2025

In June 2025, mining activity in South Africa increased by 2.4% year-on-year, following a modest 0.2% rise in May.

This growth was mainly driven by:

  • A 3.0% increase in platinum production, which contributed 1.0 percentage points to the overall growth for the month
  • A 3.7% rise in coal production, adding 0.8 percentage points
  • Chromium mining expanding by 9.0%, contributing a further 0.5 percentage points

For the rolling quarter ending June 2025, seasonally adjusted mining production increased by 3.9% compared to the first quarter of 2025. The quarterly growth was primarily driven by:

  • Platinum mining, which expanded by 9.0%, adding 2.5 percentage points
  • Gold production, which increased by 4.7%, contributed an additional 0.6 percentage points
  • Chromium mining, which recorded an 8.5% growth, adding 0.5 percentage points to quarterly sector growth

However, annual nominal mining sales declined sharply by 14.4% in June. This contraction followed a trend of declining sales across several mining subsectors during the month, including:

  • Gold, which fell by 53.7% and subtracted 13.6 percentage points from total mining sales growth
  • Manganese ore, which decreased by 33.7%, subtracting 2.7 percentage points
  • Coal, which contracted by 5.5%, contributed a further 1.2 percentage points to the decline

The mining sector remains crucial to South Africa’s economy, providing foreign exchange income and employment for approximately 434,000 people, according to StatsSA labour statistics for the second quarter of 2025. Employment within the sector has marginally increased from the previous quarter, underscoring its continued importance. Nevertheless, significant challenges remain, including concerns around exports to the US following new tariff measures introduced on 7 August, potential loss of AGOA benefits in September, and issues related to the new Mining Charter.

On the global stage, geopolitical tensions between the US and China—marked by trade conflicts and tariff wars—continue to disrupt international markets and restrict trade flows. As a positive development, certain mining materials used in steelmaking have been temporarily exempted from high tariffs in the US, which provides some relief for this vital sector of the South African economy, especially in terms of employment, foreign exchange earnings and economic growth.

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More Coverage

South Africa is trapped in severe economic stagnation, facing a projected 1.0% growth rate for 2026, 33.6% unemployment, and sharp contractions in mining (-12.7%) and manufacturing (-4.3%). Exposed to global fuel shocks via depleted reserves and >R12.00/litre pump levies, the nation is also caught in a fiscal spiral where national debt nears 80% of GDP and interest payments exceed R1 billion daily. Escaping this trap requires four urgent structural reforms: halting interest rate hikes for supply-side inflation, replacing rigid B-BBEE quotas with job-creation incentives, scrapping Expropriation Without Compensation (EWC), and deregulating Transnet’s logistics corridors.

Mining Production and Sales for August 2026

South Africa’s mining sector remains a vital source of jobs, foreign exchange and economic growth, but August’s sharp fall in mining output and sales highlights the mounting pressure on the industry. Rising fuel and energy costs, policy uncertainty and growing trade challenges are weighing on producers, even as firm gold prices and temporary US tariff exemptions offer some relief. Read the full report for a closer look at the latest figures, the forces shaping the sector and what they could mean for mining’s future in South Africa.

MACROECONOMIC & INVESTMENT INSIGHTS | OCTOBER 2026

A $100-plus oil price, a weaker rand and record fuel hikes are putting South Africa’s economy under mounting pressure, while strategic reserves offer little protection. This report examines how imported inflation is squeezing households and businesses, why higher interest rates may do little to tackle its root causes, and how sluggish growth and rising debt are tightening the fiscal squeeze. It also explores the stakes for trade with the United States and AGOA, and the policy choices that could restore investor confidence, unlock growth and put the country on a more resilient path.

International Trade and Trade Balance – August 2026

South Africa recorded a trade surplus of R20.4 billion in August 2026, as exports continued to outpace imports. Export growth has exceeded import growth over the first eight months of the year, reflecting subdued domestic demand among businesses and consumers. But with higher fuel prices and tighter monetary policy expected to weigh on spending, demand is likely to recover only gradually. Read the full report for a closer look at the trade figures and what they could mean for South Africa’s economy in the months ahead.

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE): August 2026

South Africa’s credit market is showing surprising resilience, with credit demand rising by 7.5% in August 2026 despite renewed interest-rate pressure, elevated inflation and mounting household costs. While mortgage advances continued to grow, the fragile recovery in the property market highlights the strain caused by subdued investment, high debt levels and rising municipal and energy expenses. At the same time, sluggish instalment credit growth and continued reliance on short-term borrowing reveal how consumers are navigating increasingly difficult financial conditions. With higher oil prices, geopolitical risks and further SARB tightening adding to the pressure, this report examines what the latest credit trends reveal about household finances, business confidence and the broader South African economy.