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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
August 13, 2025

South Africa

Employment Statistics

2025 Q2

The employment statistics for the second quarter of 2025 show a varied landscape across different sectors, as illustrated in the table above. Certain sectors have experienced job growth compared to the first quarter of 2025, whereas others have seen a reduction in employment opportunities. The unemployment rate has increased slightly, moving from 32.9% in the previous quarter to 33.2% in the second quarter of 2025. However, the expanded unemployment rate has seen a slight decrease from 43.1% to 42.9% in the same period.

In South Africa, formal non-agricultural employment saw a modest increase of 34,000, rising from 11.434 million to 11.468 million. The combined total of formally unemployed individuals in non-agricultural and agricultural sectors rose by just 19,000, stabilising around 16.8 million across the country. The working-age population expanded by about 131,000 in the second quarter, reflecting an annual growth rate of approximately 1.3%.

Unemployment rates ascended in three out of the nine provinces, although Gauteng (+95,000), Eastern Cape (+89,000), and Limpopo (+27,000) reported employment rises. Notable employment gains were observed in the Trade, Construction, and Private Household sectors, despite the informal sector losing 34,000 jobs during the reviewed quarter.

Overall, these employment figures remain somewhat disheartening, with the unemployment rate surpassing the predicted 33.0% for the second quarter of 2025. This deceleration is partly due to persistent global uncertainties, including repercussions from the imposition of US trade tariffs announced in August. Uncertainties surrounding the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) beyond September 2025 pose another challenge, as the South African government has yet to negotiate a new trade agreement with the current US administration.

Ongoing diplomatic tensions between Washington and Pretoria on various issues continue to impact economic confidence and investment decisions in South Africa. Consequently, many businesses are maintaining a cautious “wait-and-see” approach regarding expansion and hiring in the short term, particularly as they face the August 7 deadline for tariffs on exports to the US market.

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More Coverage

A Watershed Moment: Global Ceasefire and Massive Oil Correction Offer Crucial Relief for the SA Economy

A sudden global shift has delivered much-needed relief for South Africa. Following a Middle East ceasefire, oil prices have dropped sharply and the Rand has strengthened—easing pressure on fuel costs and inflation. While earlier price spikes still weigh on the outlook, this combined correction offers a critical window for economic stability, improved consumer confidence, and renewed growth momentum.

The Great Fuel Buffer

South Africa finds itself balancing global energy shocks with decisive local action. As rising oil prices threaten to strain consumers and key industries, government intervention has softened the immediate impact—highlighting both the urgency of the moment and the need for smarter, more resilient fiscal tools to manage future volatility.

SARB opts for Strategic Resilience

The South African Reserve Bank has opted for a “hawkish hold,” maintaining the repo rate at 6.75% despite headline inflation hitting a milestone low of 3.0%. Governor Lesetja Kganyago emphasised that while the inflation target has been met, the MPC remains wary of a potential “energy tax” on the economy, driven by global oil prices surging above $100 per barrel. Consequently, the Bank has adopted a cautious, forward-looking stance, slightly lowering the 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.1% to account for these external shocks and ensure long-term currency stability.

Navigating the Geopolitical Crosswinds

South Africa faces renewed inflation risks despite brief market relief, driven by rising fuel costs and import dependence. The SARB is likely to hold interest rates to protect price stability.

The Perfect Storm:

This morning, South Africans received what should have been a crowning achievement for the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). Data from Stats SA revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) cooled to 3.0% in February, down from 3.5% in January. This lands the country perfectly on the SARB’s new, more ambitious inflation target.