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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
July 29, 2025

Private Sector Credit Extension (PCSE)

June 2025

In June 2025, credit demand increased by 5.0%, aligning with market expectations for the month. Since the interest rate cuts began in September 2024, overall credit growth has accelerated, with most subcategories showing increases during June.

However, mortgage advances and credit for fixed asset purchases remain restrained, despite the ongoing interest rate cuts initiated in September 2024. Demand for property continues to be sluggish in South Africa, indicating low capital expenditure by households and businesses. High consumer debt levels, stagnant wages, and increasing living costs still constrain recovery in this sector. Nevertheless, the full benefits of lower interest rates are anticipated to materialise later in 2025, as household disposable incomes improve, driven by positive market sentiment and potential additional rate cuts by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB).

In June, instalment credit sales grew by 0.8% month-on-month, following a 0.9% increase in May, with an annual growth rate of 6.5%. Over the past two years, consumers have relied more on short-term credit to cope with rising living expenses, shown by a 7.1% increase in other loans and advances, up from 7.0% in May.

With inflation remaining favourable, continued rate reductions are expected to further enhance disposable incomes, promoting increased demand for goods and fixed assets in the second quarter of 2025 and beyond.

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Mining Production and Sales for August 2026

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MACROECONOMIC & INVESTMENT INSIGHTS | OCTOBER 2026

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International Trade and Trade Balance – August 2026

South Africa recorded a trade surplus of R20.4 billion in August 2026, as exports continued to outpace imports. Export growth has exceeded import growth over the first eight months of the year, reflecting subdued domestic demand among businesses and consumers. But with higher fuel prices and tighter monetary policy expected to weigh on spending, demand is likely to recover only gradually. Read the full report for a closer look at the trade figures and what they could mean for South Africa’s economy in the months ahead.

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE): August 2026

South Africa’s credit market is showing surprising resilience, with credit demand rising by 7.5% in August 2026 despite renewed interest-rate pressure, elevated inflation and mounting household costs. While mortgage advances continued to grow, the fragile recovery in the property market highlights the strain caused by subdued investment, high debt levels and rising municipal and energy expenses. At the same time, sluggish instalment credit growth and continued reliance on short-term borrowing reveal how consumers are navigating increasingly difficult financial conditions. With higher oil prices, geopolitical risks and further SARB tightening adding to the pressure, this report examines what the latest credit trends reveal about household finances, business confidence and the broader South African economy.