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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
September 17, 2024

Market Sentiment: Consumer Confidence

Market sentiment appears to be improving, as the latest Consumer Confidence index rose by 5 points from the second quarter to the third quarter of 2024. This increase aligns with the rise in Business Confidence observed during the same period.

The growing confidence in the economy is driven by several factors: the formation and initial operations of the Government of National Unity (GNU), better-than-expected economic growth in the second quarter, moderating inflation, reduced loadshedding, and the possibility of an interest rate cut by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in September.

Higher overall confidence levels are promising for economic growth, as they may lead to increased demand and supply. This, in turn, could create investment opportunities and contribute to job creation, provided that this positive momentum can be sustained in the medium term.

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More Coverage

Employment Statistics in South Africa

Q1 2025
The employment statistics for the first quarter of 2025 present a mixed picture across different sectors, as detailed in the table above. Some sectors experienced increased employment compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, while others saw a decline in job opportunities during this period. Overall, the unemployment rate edged higher from 31.9% in the previous quarter to 32.9% in Q1 2025. Meanwhile, the expanded unemployment rate decreased slightly from 41.1% to 40.3% during the same timeframe.

A Positive Turning Point for Global Trade and Markets

Analysing the Impacts of the US-China Deal and Its Broader Economic Implications
The recent negotiated agreement between the United States and China marks a significant milestone in international trade relations, providing a much-needed breather for the global economy. By agreeing to reduce tariffs for a 90-day period—U.S. tariffs cut from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs from 125% to 10%—both nations have demonstrated a renewed commitment to cooperation.

Manufacturing Production

March 2025
In March 2025, manufacturing production in South Africa declined by 0.8%, following a 3.2% contraction in February. This decrease contrasted with the upward movement in the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which rose from 44.7 in February to 48.7 in March.

Navigating International and Domestic Winds

South Africa’s Economic Prospects
In a world of interconnected economies, global developments unfailingly ripple through national borders. For South Africa, recent international and domestic events offer a complex tapestry of challenges and opportunities that could shape its economic trajectory.

Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves

April 2025
The African International Liquidity Position, reflected by Net Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves, grew in both USD and Rand terms as of April 2025. Despite a nearly 60c Rand depreciation against the dollar, reserves increased, boosted by a 4.7% rise in gold prices, which remain 41.4% higher than in 2024.
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