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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
May 7, 2025

International Trade and Trade Balance

International trade measures South Africa’s demand for foreign goods and services against the demand for domestically produced goods in global markets. The country primarily exports raw materials such as base metals, gold, precious metals, and minerals, while importing value-added products like vehicles, chemicals, and machinery.

In March 2025, South Africa recorded a trade balance surplus of R24.78 billion, indicating that exports exceeded imports. However, on a quarterly basis, exports declined from R518.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024 to R484.2 billion in the first quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, imports remained relatively stable at around R456 billion. The steady value of imports from the end of 2024 to the start of 2025 suggests that domestic demand remained relatively unchanged during this period.

Looking ahead, demand may increase further in 2025 supported by lower interest rates and low inflation, which could boost consumer and business spending in the coming months.
Compared to the same period in 2023, current imports are notably lower—R456 billion in the first quarter of 2025 versus R488.1 billion in the first quarter of 2023. Exports, however, are slightly higher at R484 billion in 2025 compared to R482 billion in 2023.

Moving forward, there is optimism that the South African economy will build on the confidence gained in 2024. This positive outlook is supported by potential further reductions in interest rates and improvements in infrastructure, particularly at ports and rail facilities, which could mitigate bottlenecks and enhance trade performance.

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Mining Production and Sales for August 2026

South Africa’s mining sector remains a vital source of jobs, foreign exchange and economic growth, but August’s sharp fall in mining output and sales highlights the mounting pressure on the industry. Rising fuel and energy costs, policy uncertainty and growing trade challenges are weighing on producers, even as firm gold prices and temporary US tariff exemptions offer some relief. Read the full report for a closer look at the latest figures, the forces shaping the sector and what they could mean for mining’s future in South Africa.

MACROECONOMIC & INVESTMENT INSIGHTS | OCTOBER 2026

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International Trade and Trade Balance – August 2026

South Africa recorded a trade surplus of R20.4 billion in August 2026, as exports continued to outpace imports. Export growth has exceeded import growth over the first eight months of the year, reflecting subdued domestic demand among businesses and consumers. But with higher fuel prices and tighter monetary policy expected to weigh on spending, demand is likely to recover only gradually. Read the full report for a closer look at the trade figures and what they could mean for South Africa’s economy in the months ahead.

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE): August 2026

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