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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
May 7, 2025

International Trade and Trade Balance

International trade measures South Africa’s demand for foreign goods and services against the demand for domestically produced goods in global markets. The country primarily exports raw materials such as base metals, gold, precious metals, and minerals, while importing value-added products like vehicles, chemicals, and machinery.

In March 2025, South Africa recorded a trade balance surplus of R24.78 billion, indicating that exports exceeded imports. However, on a quarterly basis, exports declined from R518.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024 to R484.2 billion in the first quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, imports remained relatively stable at around R456 billion. The steady value of imports from the end of 2024 to the start of 2025 suggests that domestic demand remained relatively unchanged during this period.

Looking ahead, demand may increase further in 2025 supported by lower interest rates and low inflation, which could boost consumer and business spending in the coming months.
Compared to the same period in 2023, current imports are notably lower—R456 billion in the first quarter of 2025 versus R488.1 billion in the first quarter of 2023. Exports, however, are slightly higher at R484 billion in 2025 compared to R482 billion in 2023.

Moving forward, there is optimism that the South African economy will build on the confidence gained in 2024. This positive outlook is supported by potential further reductions in interest rates and improvements in infrastructure, particularly at ports and rail facilities, which could mitigate bottlenecks and enhance trade performance.

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More Coverage

Employment Statistics in South Africa

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The employment statistics for the first quarter of 2025 present a mixed picture across different sectors, as detailed in the table above. Some sectors experienced increased employment compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, while others saw a decline in job opportunities during this period. Overall, the unemployment rate edged higher from 31.9% in the previous quarter to 32.9% in Q1 2025. Meanwhile, the expanded unemployment rate decreased slightly from 41.1% to 40.3% during the same timeframe.

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Manufacturing Production

March 2025
In March 2025, manufacturing production in South Africa declined by 0.8%, following a 3.2% contraction in February. This decrease contrasted with the upward movement in the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which rose from 44.7 in February to 48.7 in March.

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Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves

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