Skip to main content
Invest Now
012 012 5270
Copyright © Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd. All rights reserved.
Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider (FSP 46449) in terms of The Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (37 of 2002)
Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
April 30, 2025

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

March 2025

In March 2025, credit demand rose by 3.5%, a slight decrease from 3.7% in February and below market expectations of 3.9%. While growth was observed across most subcategories, overall credit demand remains relatively low, despite recent interest rate cuts in November and January.

Mortgage advances and credit for fixed asset purchases are especially sensitive to interest rate changes. The 25-basis point reductions implemented in both November 2024 and January 2025 have not yet significantly increased property demand, with these two categories still experiencing constraints. Since September 2024, cumulative interest rates have been reduced by 150 basis points. The benefits of these lower rates are expected to become more pronounced later in 2025 as households and businesses show signs of recovering disposable income, supported by stable market sentiment and growing consumer confidence.

In March, instalment credit sales edged up by 0.7%, following a 0.6% increase in February, with an annual growth rate of 5.9% for March 2025. Over the past two years, consumers have increasingly relied on short-term credit to navigate financial pressures and rising living costs, evident in a 4.4% increase in loans and advances in March 2025, compared to a 4.0% rise in February.

Growth in property and fixed asset purchases remains modest, with mortgage advances increasing by just 3.5% in March 2025, indicating subdued activity. The slowdown in mortgage growth rates observed in late 2023 was influenced by rising interest rates in the property sector. However, the recent 50-basis point rate cut in January, along with earlier reductions, may stimulate demand for properties and fixed assets as household income stabilises and increases in the coming months, especially as positive inflation figures suggest further rate decreases in 2025. As lower interest rates enhance consumers’ disposable income, overall demand for goods and fixed assets is likely to rise as we approach the second quarter of 2025.

Back to News

More Coverage

South Africa’s Crypto Crossroads: Modern Regulation or an Economic Time Machine?

Dive into “South Africa’s Crypto Crossroads: Modern Regulation or an Economic Time Machine?” an eye-opening exploration of South Africa’s latest Draft Capital Flow Management Regulations, 2026. As the South African government aims to modernise cross-border financial regulations and tighten digital currency controls, these proposed changes have sparked uproar among fintech leaders and legal experts. The draft threatens to overreach into constitutional rights, potentially stifling innovation and economic growth. With concerns over encroachments on privacy and powers to seize assets, critics argue that the regulations could deter investment and spark a talent exodus. As the public comment period extends, the country’s financial future hangs in the balance, poised between innovation and economic regression. Discover why industry stakeholders are on high alert and advocating for a careful recalibration of this legislative move.

Manufacturing Production – April 2026

In April 2026, South Africa’s manufacturing sector experienced a worrying 2.9% contraction, in stark contrast to earlier growth forecasts. While the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) indicated slight optimism, with a rise to 52.6, the underlying data revealed significant declines in key industries, notably basic iron and steel and motor vehicles, which contributed heavily to the downturn. This article delves into the factors driving this decline, including the impact of US trade tariffs and ongoing diplomatic tensions, which have exacerbated the situation and led to a steep drop in exports. Despite these challenges, manufacturers have taken a cautious yet strategic approach, maintaining robust cash reserves amidst the turmoil. Explore the full report to understand the implications for South Africa’s economic landscape and the future of manufacturing in the region.

A view on Demand in the Economy: Retail Sales performance – April 2026 Data

Discover the dynamics of South Africa’s retail landscape as April 2026 saw an unexpected 1.3% sales surge, surpassing analyst expectations and hinting at a delicate yet promising recovery in consumer demand. Unpack the complex backdrop of inflation concerns, interest rate adjustments by the South African Reserve Bank, and the broader economic challenges shaped by international tensions and rising costs. Despite the growth, households navigate a landscape of cautious spending, with recent interest rate hikes casting a shadow over future consumer spending and business confidence. This intriguing exploration offers insights into the driving forces behind the retail revival and the headwinds that may test its resilience.

Consumer Inflation – April 2026

In the latest analysis on South Africa’s economic landscape, our article delves into the implications of the recent 4.5% year-on-year rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), highlighting critical factors behind this uptick, including significant increases in housing, transport, and financial services. As inflation continues to surpass the Reserve Bank’s target, the report examines the resulting strain on household purchasing power and the rising reliance on short-term credit amid fluctuating global conditions. The article further explores the complexities of recent monetary policy decisions, including the Reserve Bank’s cautious approach to interest rates in response to these economic pressures exacerbated by international conflicts and tariff impacts. With insights into future inflation expectations and their potential effects on South Africa’s economic stability, this comprehensive report offers valuable perspectives on navigating the challenges ahead. Don’t miss out on the full details that could shape your understanding of the current economic climate!

Mining Production and Sales for April 2026

In April 2026, South Africa’s mining sector saw a significant resurgence, with an impressive 8.2% growth in activity driven by a remarkable 36.5% increase in platinum group metals (PGM) production. The industry’s vitality is evident in the rolling quarter growth of 2.4%, bolstered by surging platinum and gold outputs. With mining sales soaring by 30.3%, supported by a dramatic upswing in platinum and gold sales, the sector remains a cornerstone of South Africa’s economy, providing crucial employment and foreign exchange. Despite this historic success, challenges loom, such as geopolitical tensions, new tariffs, and the loss of key international trade benefits, threatening future stability. Discover how South Africa’s mining industry is navigating these turbulent times, seizing opportunities, and overcoming the obstacles posed by international and domestic pressures in this compelling report.