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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
June 11, 2025

Manufacturing Production

April 2025

In April 2025, South Africa’s manufacturing output declined by 6.3%, following a 1.2% decrease in March—exceeding most analyst forecasts of a 2.8% contraction for April. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from 48.7 in March to 44.7 in April, reflecting growing manufacturer apprehension.

Key contributing factors include:

  • Petroleum, Chemical, Rubber, and Plastic Products: -4.7%, reducing overall output by 1.0 percentage point.
  • Motor Vehicles and Transport Equipment: -13.0%, adding 1.2 points to the decline.
  • Food and Beverages: -7.6%, decreasing output by 1.8 points.
  • Iron, Steel, Metals, and Machinery: -6.3%, contributing 1.4 points to the contraction.

Seasonally adjusted sales dipped by 0.7% in April, and the rolling quarter ending in April contracted by 0.3% compared to the previous quarter. Declines were driven primarily by Basic Iron and Steel, Metals, and Machinery, which fell by 3.3%, while Motor Vehicles and Parts expanded by 6.5%, offsetting sector declines.

Manufacturing remains vital to South Africa’s economy, employing about 1.6 million people and contributing 12.5% to GDP in 2024. Employment increased slightly from 1.675 million in Q4 2024 to 1.677 million in Q1 2025, indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook despite April’s contraction.

However, sector sentiment remains cautious, with many business owners adopting a “wait-and-see” approach due to concerns over US tariffs impacting exports and ongoing US-China trade tensions. Despite current international uncertainties, companies continue to hold significant cash reserves, reflecting a cautious stance amid domestic and global economic complexities.

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