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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
March 10, 2026

International Trade and Trade Balance – January 2026

South Africa recorded a R9.3 billion trade surplus in January 2026, as exports of raw materials continued to exceed imports of value-added goods. Exports increased while imports declined compared to 2025, reflecting relatively weak domestic demand. However, lower interest rates and stable inflation could support a gradual recovery in demand during 2026.

International trade measures South Africa’s demand for foreign goods and services relative to its demand for domestically produced products in the global market. The country predominantly exports raw materials, including base metals, gold, other precious metals, and minerals, while importing value-added products such as vehicles, chemicals, and machinery.

In January 2026, South Africa recorded a trade surplus of R9.3 billion, indicating that exports once again exceeded imports. Over the last three months ending January 2026, exports have grown by 3.9% compared to the same period in 2025, from R488 million in 2025 to R507 million in 2026. Meanwhile, imports declined by 4.0%, from R457 million in 2025 to R437 million in January 2026. This reflects the nature of relatively low international demand from South African businesses and consumers at this stage.

Looking ahead, demand is expected to grow slightly in 2026, supported by the 25-basis-point interest rate cut announced at the end of November 2025, which will take full effect just yet. Lower interest rates, coupled with low inflation, a relatively stable and appreciated Rand, albeit under pressure as of late, against the US dollar and stable consumer and producer prices, could help to stimulate domestic demand in the coming months.

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A Watershed Moment: Global Ceasefire and Massive Oil Correction Offer Crucial Relief for the SA Economy

A sudden global shift has delivered much-needed relief for South Africa. Following a Middle East ceasefire, oil prices have dropped sharply and the Rand has strengthened—easing pressure on fuel costs and inflation. While earlier price spikes still weigh on the outlook, this combined correction offers a critical window for economic stability, improved consumer confidence, and renewed growth momentum.

The Great Fuel Buffer

South Africa finds itself balancing global energy shocks with decisive local action. As rising oil prices threaten to strain consumers and key industries, government intervention has softened the immediate impact—highlighting both the urgency of the moment and the need for smarter, more resilient fiscal tools to manage future volatility.

SARB opts for Strategic Resilience

The South African Reserve Bank has opted for a “hawkish hold,” maintaining the repo rate at 6.75% despite headline inflation hitting a milestone low of 3.0%. Governor Lesetja Kganyago emphasised that while the inflation target has been met, the MPC remains wary of a potential “energy tax” on the economy, driven by global oil prices surging above $100 per barrel. Consequently, the Bank has adopted a cautious, forward-looking stance, slightly lowering the 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.1% to account for these external shocks and ensure long-term currency stability.

Navigating the Geopolitical Crosswinds

South Africa faces renewed inflation risks despite brief market relief, driven by rising fuel costs and import dependence. The SARB is likely to hold interest rates to protect price stability.

The Perfect Storm:

This morning, South Africans received what should have been a crowning achievement for the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). Data from Stats SA revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) cooled to 3.0% in February, down from 3.5% in January. This lands the country perfectly on the SARB’s new, more ambitious inflation target.