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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
January 15, 2026

Manufacturing Production

November 2025

In November, South Africa’s manufacturing output experienced a further decline of 1.0%, following a modest increase of 0.4% in October. This downturn was slightly better than market expectations, which had forecasted a decrease of 1.2% for November. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also fell by 7.2 points, from 49.2 in October to 42.0 in November 2025, indicating a less favourable business climate anticipated by manufacturers.

The iron and steel sector contracted by 2.5%, which detracted 0.6 percentage points from overall manufacturing growth. Additionally, the wood and wood products industry declined by 7.9%, further reducing growth by 0.8 percentage points. The motor vehicles, parts and accessories, and other transport equipment sector also contracted by 4.4%, contributing an additional 0.4 percentage points to the overall decline in manufacturing output for November. These sectors were among the primary contributors to the industry’s poor performance.

Conversely, seasonally adjusted manufacturing production increased by 0.6% for the three months ending in November 2025 compared to the previous three months ending in August. Out of ten industries, six reported growths, with notable contributions from:

  • Basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products, and machinery, which grew by 2.0%, contributing 0.4 percentage points.
  • Petroleum, chemical products, rubber, and plastic products, which expanded by 2.1%, adding 0.4 percentage points.
  • Furniture and ‘other’ manufacturing, which increased by 7.5%, contributing 0.3 percentage points.

Seasonally adjusted manufacturing sales also rose by 0.1% over the same three-month period compared to the previous rolling quarter, with significant increases in:

  • Basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products, and machinery, which grew by 3.7%, adding 0.7 percentage points.
  • The furniture and ‘other’ manufacturing division, which expanded by 9.5%, contributing 0.4 percentage points.

Manufacturing is a crucial component of South Africa’s economy, employing approximately 1.6 million people and accounting for 12.5% of the GDP in 2024. Employment slightly decreased from 1.672 million in Q2 2025 to 1.610 million in Q3 2025. Nonetheless, GDP figures for the third quarter reflect a 0.3% quarterly increase in the manufacturing sector’s output. Challenges are expected to arise from the third quarter onwards, partly due to US trade tariffs affecting production, sales, and employment.

Despite positive developments in several industries, business owners are exercising caution due to concerns over US tariffs on exports and ongoing US-China trade tensions. This cautious sentiment is likely to be exacerbated by the recent implementation of a 30% tariff on South African goods entering the US market, effective from August 7, 2025. However, companies are maintaining substantial cash reserves, approximately R1.8 trillion, compared to R1.1 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, according to the Reserve Bank. This reflects a prudent approach amid current domestic and global economic uncertainties in the short to medium term.

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