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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
March 27, 2025

Mining Production and Sales

January 2025

In January 2025, mining activities in South Africa experienced a 2.7% decline, following a 2.4% decrease in December.

The primary factors contributing to this downturn included:

  • Platinum Group Metals (PGMs): down 3.8%, which accounted for a decline of 1.1 percentage points.
  • Coal: decreased by 4.4%, contributing a further 1.0 percentage point to the overall drop.
  • Iron Ore: contracted by 15.1%, which added 2.7 percentage points to the decrease in mining production.

On a positive note, manganese ore production rose by 21.2%, adding 1.2 percentage points to growth and helping to mitigate some of the overall decline recorded in January 2025.

On an annual basis, mineral sales fell by 5.9% in January 2025, following a 9.4% contraction in December. Significant decreases in sales included:

  • Chromium Ore: down by 26.8%, contributing -1.7 percentage points.
  • Gold: decreased by 21.1%, accounting for -5.8 percentage points.

The most significant contributor to mining sales growth for January 2025 was coal, which saw a 14.2% increase, adding 3.1 percentage points to offset the lower sales in other mining categories.

The mining sector is crucial to South Africa’s economy, generating foreign exchange and directly employing approximately 484,000 individuals, according to StatsSA. However, the recent news regarding the potential closure of ArcelorMittal (AMSA) poses challenges for iron ore production and sales in the South African market. The government is working to intervene and prevent such a key player from exiting the market due to rising production costs and infrastructure bottlenecks, including port and rail challenges that have worsened cost issues. Timely and urgent action is required to ensure AMSA continues to operate within the mining and steel industry.

As of early 2025, plans for the closure of ArcelorMittal have been paused due to ongoing government negotiations. The government is committed to “keeping the doors open,” recognising that such a closure would be detrimental to South Africa at this critical juncture.

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South Africa is trapped in severe economic stagnation, facing a projected 1.0% growth rate for 2026, 33.6% unemployment, and sharp contractions in mining (-12.7%) and manufacturing (-4.3%). Exposed to global fuel shocks via depleted reserves and >R12.00/litre pump levies, the nation is also caught in a fiscal spiral where national debt nears 80% of GDP and interest payments exceed R1 billion daily. Escaping this trap requires four urgent structural reforms: halting interest rate hikes for supply-side inflation, replacing rigid B-BBEE quotas with job-creation incentives, scrapping Expropriation Without Compensation (EWC), and deregulating Transnet’s logistics corridors.

Mining Production and Sales for August 2026

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International Trade and Trade Balance – August 2026

South Africa recorded a trade surplus of R20.4 billion in August 2026, as exports continued to outpace imports. Export growth has exceeded import growth over the first eight months of the year, reflecting subdued domestic demand among businesses and consumers. But with higher fuel prices and tighter monetary policy expected to weigh on spending, demand is likely to recover only gradually. Read the full report for a closer look at the trade figures and what they could mean for South Africa’s economy in the months ahead.

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE): August 2026

South Africa’s credit market is showing surprising resilience, with credit demand rising by 7.5% in August 2026 despite renewed interest-rate pressure, elevated inflation and mounting household costs. While mortgage advances continued to grow, the fragile recovery in the property market highlights the strain caused by subdued investment, high debt levels and rising municipal and energy expenses. At the same time, sluggish instalment credit growth and continued reliance on short-term borrowing reveal how consumers are navigating increasingly difficult financial conditions. With higher oil prices, geopolitical risks and further SARB tightening adding to the pressure, this report examines what the latest credit trends reveal about household finances, business confidence and the broader South African economy.