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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
April 16, 2025

Mining Production and Sales

February 2025

In February 2025, mining activities in South Africa saw a significant decline of 9.6%, following a revised decrease of 1.5% in January 2025.

The key factors behind this downturn include:

  • Platinum Group Metals (PGMs): down 23.9%, contributing a decline of 5.8 percentage points.
  • Coal: decreased by 4.3%, accounting for a further 1.0 percentage point loss.
  • Iron Ore: contracted by 10.5%, adding 1.9 percentage points to the overall drop.
  • Gold: saw a decrease of 7.6%, contributing another 1.0 percentage point to the decline.

However, manganese ore production rose by 8.6% in February 2025, partially offsetting the overall decline.

Mining sales also fell by 12.9% in February, with the main contributors to this contraction being:

  • Platinum Group Metals (PGMs): down 12.2%, resulting in a 2.5 percentage point decline.
  • Chromium: decreased by 23.2%, contributing 2.1 percentage points to the overall drop.
  • Iron Ore: contracted by 29.5%, adding 4.9 percentage points to the decrease.
  • Gold: experienced a decrease of 32.7%, contributing an additional 3.5 percentage points to the overall decline.

On a brighter note, coal sales increased by 5.3%, providing 1.4 percentage points to offset losses in other categories.

The mining sector is vital to South Africa’s economy, generating foreign exchange and directly employing approximately 484,000 people, according to StatsSA. However, concerns about the potential closure of ArcelorMittal (AMSA) pose significant challenges for iron ore production and sales in the country. The government is actively seeking to prevent AMSA from exiting the market due to rising production costs and infrastructure bottlenecks, particularly in ports and railways. Timely action is essential to ensure AMSA’s continued presence in the mining and steel industry.

On the global front, ongoing tensions between the US and China, coupled with their trade conflict, have unsettled markets and led to a reduction in international trade. This trend is reflected in production and sales volumes worldwide. The coming months will reveal whether we can avoid a global and domestic recession.

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South Africa is trapped in severe economic stagnation, facing a projected 1.0% growth rate for 2026, 33.6% unemployment, and sharp contractions in mining (-12.7%) and manufacturing (-4.3%). Exposed to global fuel shocks via depleted reserves and >R12.00/litre pump levies, the nation is also caught in a fiscal spiral where national debt nears 80% of GDP and interest payments exceed R1 billion daily. Escaping this trap requires four urgent structural reforms: halting interest rate hikes for supply-side inflation, replacing rigid B-BBEE quotas with job-creation incentives, scrapping Expropriation Without Compensation (EWC), and deregulating Transnet’s logistics corridors.

Mining Production and Sales for August 2026

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International Trade and Trade Balance – August 2026

South Africa recorded a trade surplus of R20.4 billion in August 2026, as exports continued to outpace imports. Export growth has exceeded import growth over the first eight months of the year, reflecting subdued domestic demand among businesses and consumers. But with higher fuel prices and tighter monetary policy expected to weigh on spending, demand is likely to recover only gradually. Read the full report for a closer look at the trade figures and what they could mean for South Africa’s economy in the months ahead.

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE): August 2026

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