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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
March 13, 2026

Mining Production and Sales for January 2026

In January 2026, South Africa’s mining activity rose 4.6% following the 2.8% increase recorded in December 2025. This growth was predominantly driven by:

  • A 10.8% increase in PGM mining production, which contributed 2.7 percentage points to the overall mining output for the month.
  • A substantial 37.3% rise in chromium ore output, adding another 1.8 percentage points and
  • Manganese production rose by 12.5% during January, while adding 1.0 percentage points towards mining production growth.

For the rolling quarter ending January 2026 compared with the previous rolling quarter, seasonally adjusted mining output decreased by 3.1%. This decline was primarily due to:

  • A 4.8% drop in platinum mining, which decreased total mining production by 1.3 percentage points.
  • A 3.3% fall in coal production, deducting 0.8 percentage points and
  • Iron ore production, which decreased by 7.9% and, subtracted 1.2 percentage points for the quarter under review.

In December, nominal mining sales rose 31.7%. This positive trend was notably supported by:

  • A 122.4% surge in platinum sales, which added 23.1 percentage points to overall mining sales growth.
  • An impressive 35.9% rise in gold sales, contributing 8.4 percentage points.
  • Chromium ore sales, which grew by 66.7%, added another 3.4 percentage points.

The mining sector remains vital to South Africa’s economy, generating foreign exchange and employing approximately 444,000 people, a slight decrease of 5,000 from the previous quarter, according to StatsSA labour statistics for the fourth quarter of 2025. According to the latest GDP data, the sector however contracted by 1.3% from the third to the fourth quarter of 2025, with sector growth of 0.9% projected for the first quarter of 2026. This projected first-quarter growth is encouraging, given the sector’s importance to employment and foreign earnings for the South African economy.

Despite a slight decrease in employment from the previous quarter, the sector’s continued significance is evident. However, challenges persist, including concerns over exports to the US following new tariff measures introduced on 7 August, proposed export tariffs on manganese, and import tariffs on steel exports to the Eurozone. The sector also faces challenges related to the loss of AGOA benefits in September and ongoing issues with the new Mining Charter.

On the international stage, geopolitical tensions between the US and China—marked by trade conflicts and tariff disputes—continue to disrupt global markets and limit trade flows. The current Middle Eastern conflict between the US/Israel, and Iran does not bode well for international oil prices at this stage and may cause some sectors to experience rapid cost increases if the conflict isn’t resolved quickly. Nonetheless, some positive developments, such as the continued temporary exemption of certain mining materials used in steelmaking from high US tariffs, have occurred. This provides some relief for the sector, which remains crucial to South Africa’s economy in terms of employment, foreign exchange, and overall growth.

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More Coverage

Inflation Relief, Real-Economy Headwinds, and the Geopolitical Imperative for South Africa

South Africa has received a much-needed inflation reprieve, with July headline inflation easing to 4.3% and giving the South African Reserve Bank room to hold interest rates steady, but monetary relief alone cannot rescue an economy facing contracting mining and manufacturing sectors, depressed investment, mass unemployment, and mounting pressure on export earnings. This report examines how a 12.5% US tariff and a 56% annualised plunge in exports are intensifying the country’s economic vulnerability, while diplomatic disputes over property rights, empowerment policy, rural safety, political rhetoric, and South Africa’s geopolitical alliances threaten access to the strategically vital US market. It also sets out the practical policy choices, from structural reform and infrastructure investment to pragmatic trade diplomacy, that could determine whether South Africa converts this brief moment of inflation stability into sustainable growth or slips deeper into stagnation

Consumer Inflation – July 2026

South Africa’s July 2026 inflation reading delivered a genuine surprise: consumer prices rose just 4.3% year-on-year, well below June’s 5.0% and under the 4.5% the market had pencilled in, yet the story beneath that headline is far more complicated than a simple cooling trend. Goods inflation has slipped into the SARB’s new 2–4% target band, but services inflation stubbornly holds at 5.0%, revealing that price pressure is now entering the economy through a channel monetary policy struggles to reach. Meanwhile, housing, transport, and financial services drove the bulk of the increase; fuel costs remain elevated amid the renewed Middle East conflict and rising oil prices; and households and businesses relying on short-term credit are dangerously exposed to any shift in rates, the rand, or import costs. Add US tariffs weighing on manufacturing, fragile 0.5% first-quarter growth, and a Reserve Bank that has already wrong-footed markets twice this year, and the run-up to the 23 September MPC meeting becomes anything but predictable. This report unpacks what the numbers actually signal, why the SARB is holding its nerve, and what it will take to tip the next rate decision either way.

Mining Production and Sales for June 2026

South Africa’s mining sector faced renewed pressure in June 2026, with production declining 4.0% amid sharp contractions in iron ore, coal and platinum-group metals, while second-quarter output fell 2.7% as manganese, PGMs, gold and iron ore all weakened. Yet soaring commodity prices, particularly for gold, platinum and chromium, drove a 27.2% increase in nominal mining sales, highlighting the sector’s resilience and continued importance as a source of employment, foreign exchange and economic growth. Against this mixed backdrop, the report examines the industry’s mounting challenges, including job losses, proposed export and import tariffs, the loss of AGOA benefits, uncertainty surrounding the Mining Charter, rising energy costs and geopolitical tensions affecting global trade and shipping. It also considers whether temporary tariff exemptions for key steelmaking minerals can provide much-needed relief to an industry navigating an increasingly volatile global economy.

South African Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves for July 2026

South Africa’s international liquidity position reveals a complex economic landscape shaped by global geopolitical tensions, commodity price dynamics, and evolving trade relationships. While Net Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves showed modest growth in July 2026, buoyed by historically elevated gold prices and strategic central bank interventions, underlying pressures, including Middle East conflict-driven fuel costs, currency volatility, and shifting US trade policies, threaten inflation stability and monetary policy decisions in the months ahead. This comprehensive analysis examines how commodity trends, Reserve Bank operations, and international developments are converging to shape South Africa’s economic trajectory, offering critical insights into what investors, policymakers, and businesses should monitor as the country navigates tariff uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and the critical third-quarter interest rate decisions that could define economic performance for the remainder of 2026.

Manufacturing Production – June 2026

South Africa’s manufacturing sector came under renewed pressure in June 2026, with production declining by 1.7% following strong growth in May. The contraction was driven mainly by weaker output in food and beverages, wood products, and motor vehicles and transport equipment. Manufacturing production also fell by 1.5% in the second quarter, with seven of ten sectors recording declines. Despite subdued production, manufacturing sales increased by 0.6% during the quarter, supported by stronger sales in chemicals, petroleum, rubber and plastics, as well as motor vehicles. However, declining employment and a PMI below the 50-point threshold highlight growing caution among manufacturers. Ongoing US trade tariffs and diplomatic tensions are adding further pressure, while businesses continue to maintain high cash reserves as they navigate domestic and global economic uncertainty.