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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
February 18, 2025

Employment Statistics in South Africa

Q4 2024

The fourth quarter of 2024 shows promising employment trends in South Africa, with the unemployment rate falling from 32.1% to 31.9%. Formal non-agricultural jobs increased by 132,000, reflecting renewed economic confidence and a stable electricity supply, contributing to a more hopeful labour market.

The employment statistics for the fourth quarter of 2024 indicate positive trends, with the unemployment rate decreasing from 32.1% in the third quarter to 31.9%. The expanded unemployment rate, however, remained steady at 41.9% from the third to the fourth quarter.

In South Africa, formal non-agricultural employment increased by over 132,000, rising from 16.9 million to 17.1 million in the fourth quarter. Correspondingly, the number of unemployed individuals declined by 20,000, stabilizing around 8.0 million.

Unemployment rates decreased in five out of the nine provinces, although Gauteng, Free State, and Northwest provinces saw increases in unemployment. Employment growth was observed across various sectors: the informal sector added 34,000 jobs and the formal sector gained 90,000 jobs, while the agricultural sector experienced a loss of 11,000 jobs.

Overall, these employment figures are encouraging, as the unemployment rate fell below the consensus forecast of 32.4% for the fourth quarter. This decline can be attributed to a reliable electricity supply and renewed economic confidence, which are beginning to yield tangible improvements in South Africa’s often challenging labour market as a developing country.

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More Coverage

Gold and Foreign Exchange

September 2025
The South African International Liquidity Position, measured by Net Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves, showed growth in both USD and Rand terms for September 2025.

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

August 2025
In August 2025, credit demand grew by 5.9%, slightly below the anticipated market prediction of 6.0% for the month. Since the initiation of interest rate cuts in September 2024, there has been a noticeable acceleration in overall credit growth, with most subcategories showing increases, particularly in July.

Internation Trade and Trade Balance

August 2025
International trade measures South Africa’s demand for foreign goods and services relative to its demand for domestically produced products in the global market.

The Rand’s Journey Against the Dollar in 2025

Unpacking the Undervaluation and Economic Implications
As of October 2025, the South African Rand is trading at R17.15 against the US Dollar, a significant figure in the context of an estimated average exchange rate of R18.20 from January to September 2025. Market analyses leveraging the Purchase Power Parity (PPP) exchange rate – calculated using inflation differentials between South Africa and the US from 2020 to 2025 – indicate that the Rand remains undervalued. This disparity suggests an alignment closer to R14.30 in a conservative estimation and potentially as low as R11.30, revealing a risk premium embedded in the current forex dynamics.

Unlocking South Africa’s Potential

Bold and Radical Shift in Policies are required.
South Africa’s economy recorded modest growth of just 0.8% during the second quarter of 2025, continuing a pattern of sluggish expansion that has persisted over the past decade. With the economy still struggling to break free from its constraints, serious reforms and strategic policy adjustments are essential if South Africa is to achieve sustainable growth rates significantly higher than the current 0.8% average.
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