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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
June 13, 2025

Mining Production and Sales

April 2025

In April 2025, mining activities in South Africa experienced a 7.7% decline, following a revised 2.5% decrease in March 2025.

Key factors contributing to this downturn include:

  • Platinum Group Metals (PGMs): Down 24.1%, contributing to a 8.0 percentage point decline.
  • Gold: Decreased by 2.5%, adding a further 0.3 percentage point to the overall decline and
  • Coal: Contracting by 1.7% and subtracting a further 0.3 percentage point from total mining activity within South Africa.

However, iron ore production increased by 5.3% and added 0.7 percentage points in April 2025, partially offsetting the overall decline in mining activity.
Mining sales rose by 0.7% in April due to increases in key areas:

  • Manganese ore: Up 6.0%, contributing a 1.6 percentage point increase.
  • Gold: Rose by 56.6%, contributing an additional 9.4 percentage points.

Despite these increases, Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) sales, the largest negative sector, decreased by 20.1%, providing a 4.7 percentage point offset against the gains in other categories followed by Iron Ore sales that decreased by 25.9% and subtracted 3.5 percentage points from overall growth in mining sales.

The mining sector is crucial to South Africa’s economy, providing foreign exchange and directly employing approximately 431,000 people, according to StatsSA labour statistics. Nonetheless, there are significant challenges ahead, particularly concerning the potential closure of ArcelorMittal South Africa (AMSA) as seen in sales of iron ore that decrease notably during April 2025. The government is still battling to prevent AMSA’s exit from the market due to rising production costs and infrastructure issues, especially in ports and railways. Prompt action is essential to ensure AMSA’s continued presence in the mining and steel industry, amid concerns about access to the US market.

Globally, ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and China, alongside their trade conflicts and tariff wars, have unsettled markets, reducing international trade. Fortunately, high tariffs have been temporarily reduced for 90 days following a “constructive but tense” trade meeting between the US and China regarding market access. The reduced tariffs announced by the Trump administration is set to expire by the 9th of July and trade deals with the US will have to be finalised before that to ensure reduced tariffs rates and access to the US market going forward. This development might positively influence production and sales volumes worldwide for both mining and manufactured goods if trade deals are finalised and agreed upon.

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More Coverage

Manufacturing Production

November 2025
In November, South Africa’s manufacturing output experienced a further decline of 1.0%, following a modest increase of 0.4% in October. This downturn was slightly better than market expectations, which had forecasted a decrease of 1.2% for November. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also fell by 7.2 points, from 49.2 in October to 42.0 in November 2025, indicating a less favourable business climate anticipated by manufacturers.

Gold and Foreign Exchange

December 2025
The South African International Liquidity Position, as reflected by Net Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves, saw an increase in US Dollar terms for December 2025, although there was a slight decline when measured in Rand. This occurred alongside the Rand’s appreciation against the US Dollar from November to December, according to data from the South African Reserve Bank.

A Case for Lowering Interest Rates

by the South African Reserve Bank
As the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) gears up for its next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on January 29, 2026, the prospect of a 25-basis point reduction in the repo rate, bringing it down from 6.75% to 6.5%, appears increasingly likely. The dynamics surrounding this decision have shifted significantly since the last MPC meeting in late November 2025, driven by a confluence of international events and local economic performance.

Producer Price Inflation

November 2025
In November 2025, producer price inflation increased to 2.9%, reflecting the same growth rate as the previous month. However, there was no change on a monthly basis compared to October.

Mining Production and Sales

October 2025
In October 2025, mining activity in South Africa saw a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, following a 1.4% rise recorded in September.
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