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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
July 16, 2025

Mining Production and Sales

May 2025

In May 2025, mining activities in South Africa showed a modest increase of 0.2%, following a revised 7.5% decline in April. This slight improvement was primarily driven by a 12.5% rise in iron ore production, which contributed 1.7 percentage points to the month’s overall growth. The main factors negatively impacting mining production growth were manganese ore, which fell by 13.0% and reduced growth by 1.0 percentage point, and coal, which decreased by 4.6%, also subtracting 1.0 percentage point from total mining activity.

For the rolling quarter ending in May 2025, seasonally adjusted mining production rose by 2.6% compared to the previous quarter ending in February 2025. Iron ore led quarterly growth, expanding by 12.6% and adding 1.8 percentage points, while coal production, the biggest detractor, contracted by 3.5% and reduced growth by 0.8 percentage points.

Annual mining sales in May increased by 18.8%, largely due to a dramatic 338.7% surge in gold sales, adding 25.1 percentage points to growth. Meanwhile, Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) fell by 15.6%, subtracting 4.1 percentage points during this period.

The mining sector is vital to South Africa’s economy, offering foreign exchange and employing around 431,000 people, according to StatsSA labor statistics. However, significant challenges lie ahead, including concerns about exports to the US following tariff announcements, the potential loss of AGOA benefits, and issues related to the recent mining charter.

Globally, geopolitical tensions between the US and China, characterised by trade conflicts and tariff wars, have disrupted markets and curtailed international trade. As a positive development, high tariffs have been temporarily reduced for 90 days following a “constructive but tense” trade meeting between the US and China on market access. The Trump administration’s tariff reprieve is set to expire on July 9, and any unresolved trade deals by August 1 will result in a 30% tariff on exports to the US from countries without new agreements.

The outcome of these negotiations in the coming weeks is critical for South Africa, potentially affecting access to the US market, financial stability, and employment. Achieving a favourable trade deal is crucial to maintaining economic benefits for South Africa now and in the future.

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More Coverage

Manufacturing Production

November 2025
In November, South Africa’s manufacturing output experienced a further decline of 1.0%, following a modest increase of 0.4% in October. This downturn was slightly better than market expectations, which had forecasted a decrease of 1.2% for November. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also fell by 7.2 points, from 49.2 in October to 42.0 in November 2025, indicating a less favourable business climate anticipated by manufacturers.

Gold and Foreign Exchange

December 2025
The South African International Liquidity Position, as reflected by Net Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves, saw an increase in US Dollar terms for December 2025, although there was a slight decline when measured in Rand. This occurred alongside the Rand’s appreciation against the US Dollar from November to December, according to data from the South African Reserve Bank.

A Case for Lowering Interest Rates

by the South African Reserve Bank
As the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) gears up for its next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on January 29, 2026, the prospect of a 25-basis point reduction in the repo rate, bringing it down from 6.75% to 6.5%, appears increasingly likely. The dynamics surrounding this decision have shifted significantly since the last MPC meeting in late November 2025, driven by a confluence of international events and local economic performance.

Producer Price Inflation

November 2025
In November 2025, producer price inflation increased to 2.9%, reflecting the same growth rate as the previous month. However, there was no change on a monthly basis compared to October.

Mining Production and Sales

October 2025
In October 2025, mining activity in South Africa saw a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, following a 1.4% rise recorded in September.
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