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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
February 24, 2025

View on Demand in the Economy

Retail Sales Performance

December 2024

In December 2024, South Africa’s retail sales rose 3.1% year-on-year, surpassing expectations and indicating a rebound in consumer demand. The SACCI Business Confidence Index also increased, and recent interest rate cuts promise to further stimulate demand. Overall, this positive momentum supports economic growth heading into 2025.

Retail sales in South Africa surpassed expectations in December 2024, increasing by 3.1% year-on-year, well above the predicted 2.6% rise. This unexpected growth suggests a moderate rebound in consumer demand following the Black Friday sales in November.

The SACCI Business Confidence Index also improved, rising from 118.1 to 121.0 points in December, indicating increased demand. Additionally, lower consumer inflation and a recent 50-basis point interest rate cut by the South African Reserve Bank in January 2025 could further boost demand in the coming months.

Key drivers of retail sales growth included:

  • General Dealers: Increased by 2.0%, contributing 0.9 percentage points to overall growth.
  • Textiles and Clothing: Grew by 7.8%, adding another 1.8 percentage points.

This encouraging growth in retail sales signals a positive outlook for the economy, especially as fourth-quarter economic data continue to exceed expectations. The interest rate cuts in September and November appear to have eased financial pressures on households, showing positive results. Furthermore, withdrawals from the two-pot system have positively influenced demand from October through Black Friday at the end of November 2024. The sustained consumer demand trend in December 2024 bodes well for economic growth and job creation as we head into 2025.

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Mining Production and Sales for August 2026

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MACROECONOMIC & INVESTMENT INSIGHTS | OCTOBER 2026

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International Trade and Trade Balance – August 2026

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Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE): August 2026

South Africa’s credit market is showing surprising resilience, with credit demand rising by 7.5% in August 2026 despite renewed interest-rate pressure, elevated inflation and mounting household costs. While mortgage advances continued to grow, the fragile recovery in the property market highlights the strain caused by subdued investment, high debt levels and rising municipal and energy expenses. At the same time, sluggish instalment credit growth and continued reliance on short-term borrowing reveal how consumers are navigating increasingly difficult financial conditions. With higher oil prices, geopolitical risks and further SARB tightening adding to the pressure, this report examines what the latest credit trends reveal about household finances, business confidence and the broader South African economy.