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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
July 16, 2025

Mining Production and Sales

May 2025

In May 2025, mining activities in South Africa showed a modest increase of 0.2%, following a revised 7.5% decline in April. This slight improvement was primarily driven by a 12.5% rise in iron ore production, which contributed 1.7 percentage points to the month’s overall growth. The main factors negatively impacting mining production growth were manganese ore, which fell by 13.0% and reduced growth by 1.0 percentage point, and coal, which decreased by 4.6%, also subtracting 1.0 percentage point from total mining activity.

For the rolling quarter ending in May 2025, seasonally adjusted mining production rose by 2.6% compared to the previous quarter ending in February 2025. Iron ore led quarterly growth, expanding by 12.6% and adding 1.8 percentage points, while coal production, the biggest detractor, contracted by 3.5% and reduced growth by 0.8 percentage points.

Annual mining sales in May increased by 18.8%, largely due to a dramatic 338.7% surge in gold sales, adding 25.1 percentage points to growth. Meanwhile, Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) fell by 15.6%, subtracting 4.1 percentage points during this period.

The mining sector is vital to South Africa’s economy, offering foreign exchange and employing around 431,000 people, according to StatsSA labor statistics. However, significant challenges lie ahead, including concerns about exports to the US following tariff announcements, the potential loss of AGOA benefits, and issues related to the recent mining charter.

Globally, geopolitical tensions between the US and China, characterised by trade conflicts and tariff wars, have disrupted markets and curtailed international trade. As a positive development, high tariffs have been temporarily reduced for 90 days following a “constructive but tense” trade meeting between the US and China on market access. The Trump administration’s tariff reprieve is set to expire on July 9, and any unresolved trade deals by August 1 will result in a 30% tariff on exports to the US from countries without new agreements.

The outcome of these negotiations in the coming weeks is critical for South Africa, potentially affecting access to the US market, financial stability, and employment. Achieving a favourable trade deal is crucial to maintaining economic benefits for South Africa now and in the future.

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South Africa is trapped in severe economic stagnation, facing a projected 1.0% growth rate for 2026, 33.6% unemployment, and sharp contractions in mining (-12.7%) and manufacturing (-4.3%). Exposed to global fuel shocks via depleted reserves and >R12.00/litre pump levies, the nation is also caught in a fiscal spiral where national debt nears 80% of GDP and interest payments exceed R1 billion daily. Escaping this trap requires four urgent structural reforms: halting interest rate hikes for supply-side inflation, replacing rigid B-BBEE quotas with job-creation incentives, scrapping Expropriation Without Compensation (EWC), and deregulating Transnet’s logistics corridors.

Mining Production and Sales for August 2026

South Africa’s mining sector remains a vital source of jobs, foreign exchange and economic growth, but August’s sharp fall in mining output and sales highlights the mounting pressure on the industry. Rising fuel and energy costs, policy uncertainty and growing trade challenges are weighing on producers, even as firm gold prices and temporary US tariff exemptions offer some relief. Read the full report for a closer look at the latest figures, the forces shaping the sector and what they could mean for mining’s future in South Africa.

MACROECONOMIC & INVESTMENT INSIGHTS | OCTOBER 2026

A $100-plus oil price, a weaker rand and record fuel hikes are putting South Africa’s economy under mounting pressure, while strategic reserves offer little protection. This report examines how imported inflation is squeezing households and businesses, why higher interest rates may do little to tackle its root causes, and how sluggish growth and rising debt are tightening the fiscal squeeze. It also explores the stakes for trade with the United States and AGOA, and the policy choices that could restore investor confidence, unlock growth and put the country on a more resilient path.

International Trade and Trade Balance – August 2026

South Africa recorded a trade surplus of R20.4 billion in August 2026, as exports continued to outpace imports. Export growth has exceeded import growth over the first eight months of the year, reflecting subdued domestic demand among businesses and consumers. But with higher fuel prices and tighter monetary policy expected to weigh on spending, demand is likely to recover only gradually. Read the full report for a closer look at the trade figures and what they could mean for South Africa’s economy in the months ahead.

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE): August 2026

South Africa’s credit market is showing surprising resilience, with credit demand rising by 7.5% in August 2026 despite renewed interest-rate pressure, elevated inflation and mounting household costs. While mortgage advances continued to grow, the fragile recovery in the property market highlights the strain caused by subdued investment, high debt levels and rising municipal and energy expenses. At the same time, sluggish instalment credit growth and continued reliance on short-term borrowing reveal how consumers are navigating increasingly difficult financial conditions. With higher oil prices, geopolitical risks and further SARB tightening adding to the pressure, this report examines what the latest credit trends reveal about household finances, business confidence and the broader South African economy.