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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
April 9, 2026

South African Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves for March 2026

South Africa’s reserves fell in USD terms in March 2026 as the Rand weakened amid Middle East tensions, though higher gold prices supported reserves in Rand terms. Rising oil prices and currency pressure point to higher inflation risks, while ongoing geopolitical tensions and US trade measures are likely to keep markets volatile.

The South African International Liquidity Position, measured by Net Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves, showed a decline in USD terms but an increase in Rand terms for March 2026. The Rand depreciated notably against the US Dollar from February to March 2026 following the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, according to official reports from the South African Reserve Bank. Reserves decreased by nearly USD 2.6 billion, following a USD 958 million rise in February 2026. The gold price remains high, having fallen from February to March and is still 47% higher than in 2025. The sustained high gold price played a significant role in supporting reserves from January through to March at this stage.

In USD terms, foreign reserves decreased in March 2026 compared to the previous month. The Reserve Bank sold some US Dollars in open market operations as the Rand lost value against the US Dollar throughout March, thereby impacting South Africa’s net international liquidity position at that time.

Key commodities such as gold, oil, platinum, and coal offer valuable insights into South Africa’s mining sector and inflation outlook. Monitoring these trends is vital for assessing inflation prospects, especially amid ongoing international developments and potential trade restrictions with the US following August’s tariff measures.

Tracking these movements is crucial, as inflation expectations will influence the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) interest rate decisions during the first quarter of 2026, especially in the light of the current conflict in the Middle East. A stable Rand, albeit slightly weaker, for now and notably higher oil prices are conducive to expected higher inflation forecasts for now; this may, however, change quickly if the US-Iran conflict is not resolved speedily. However, global continued geopolitical tensions and possible changes to trade agreements, such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which has been extended by one year by the US administration, could introduce increased market volatility as the 30% reciprocal tariffs remained intact on South African exports to the US market in general. With recent US tariffs and the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates in December 2025, the Rand may continue to experience short-term fluctuations, which could affect both international markets and South Africa’s economic outlook for the remainder of the year.

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Inflation Relief, Real-Economy Headwinds, and the Geopolitical Imperative for South Africa

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Mining Production and Sales for June 2026

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South African Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves for July 2026

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Manufacturing Production – June 2026

South Africa’s manufacturing sector came under renewed pressure in June 2026, with production declining by 1.7% following strong growth in May. The contraction was driven mainly by weaker output in food and beverages, wood products, and motor vehicles and transport equipment. Manufacturing production also fell by 1.5% in the second quarter, with seven of ten sectors recording declines. Despite subdued production, manufacturing sales increased by 0.6% during the quarter, supported by stronger sales in chemicals, petroleum, rubber and plastics, as well as motor vehicles. However, declining employment and a PMI below the 50-point threshold highlight growing caution among manufacturers. Ongoing US trade tariffs and diplomatic tensions are adding further pressure, while businesses continue to maintain high cash reserves as they navigate domestic and global economic uncertainty.