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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
September 15, 2026

South African Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves for August 2026

South Africa’s international liquidity position strengthened in August 2026, with net gold and foreign exchange reserves rising by USD 1,9 billion as the rand gained nearly 30c against the US dollar and the gold price climbed to USD 4 460/oz, some 30% higher than a year earlier. Yet beneath these encouraging headline figures lies a far more complex picture: the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are keeping oil prices elevated, while shifting US tariff measures, a one-year AGOA extension and the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady all point to continued volatility for the rand. With the South African Reserve Bank’s third-quarter interest rate decisions hanging in the balance, this report unpacks what these commodity and currency movements mean for inflation, the mining sector and South Africa’s economic outlook for the remainder of the year.

South Africa’s international liquidity position, measured by net gold and foreign exchange reserves, improved in both US dollar and rand terms in August 2026. According to the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), the rand strengthened by nearly 30c against the US dollar between July and August, despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Reserves rose by USD 1,9 billion in August, following an increase of USD 423 million in July 2026.

Gold continues to support reserves

The gold price remains elevated. It rose by just over USD 400/oz during August, from USD 4 057/oz in July to USD 4 460/oz, and is still around 30% higher than a year earlier. This sustained strength in the gold price has been a key factor supporting South Africa’s reserves from January through August, against the backdrop of the conflict in the Middle East.

In US dollar terms, foreign reserves increased in August compared with the previous month. The SARB also purchased US dollars in open market operations, partly in response to a slightly stronger rand and a slightly weaker dollar, which influenced the country’s net international liquidity position at the time.

Why commodity trends matter

Key commodities such as gold, oil, platinum and coal provide valuable insight into the health of South Africa’s mining sector and the inflation outlook. Monitoring these trends is essential for assessing inflation prospects, particularly given ongoing international developments and potential trade restrictions with the United States following the tariff measures introduced in August.

Implications for interest rates and the rand

Inflation expectations will shape the SARB’s interest rate decisions in the third quarter of 2026, especially amid the Middle East conflict and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. While the rand has been relatively stable and slightly stronger of late, oil prices remain higher than at the start of 2026, which adds to inflationary pressure.

Several external factors could also increase market volatility:

  • Continued global geopolitical tensions
  • Possible changes to trade agreements, including the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which the US administration has extended by one year
  • The reduction of the 30% reciprocal tariffs to 12,5% for now, after the US Supreme Court ruled that the 30% tariffs were unconstitutional and had to be withdrawn
  • The US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at its announcement on 29 July 2026

Given these developments, the rand may continue to experience short-term fluctuations despite its recent appreciation against the US dollar. This could influence South Africa’s economic outlook for the remainder of the year.

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