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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
December 10, 2024

Mining Production and Sales

September 2024

Mining South Africa rose by 1.4% in October 2024, building on a solid 4.9% growth from September. Key contributors included significant increases in iron ore, platinum group metals, and diamonds. Mineral sales also increased by 1.6%. Despite some challenges, the sector is rebounding strongly, supporting over 484,000 jobs. With improved economic confidence and a focus on stabilising production, the future looks promising for South Africa’s mining industry.

Mining in South Africa increased by 1.4% in October 2024, building on a notable 4.9% growth in September. Key contributors to this growth included:

  • Iron Ore: Up 10.0%, adding 1.3 percentage points
  • Platinum Group Metals (PGMs): Up 3.3%, contributing 2.1 percentage points
  • Coal: Up 1.8%, contributing 0.4 percentage points
  • Diamonds: Up 27.9%, adding 0.5 percentage points
  • Chromium Ore: Up 14.0%, contributing another 0.7 percentage points

However, iron ore production dropped by 6.4%, reducing growth by 0.8 percentage points, and gold production fell by 3.4%, leading to an overall decline of 0.5 percentage points in mining production.
In October 2024, mineral sales rose by 1.6%, following a 7.9% increase in September. Significant sales increases included:

  • Other Metallic Minerals: Surged 28.9%, boosting performance by 0.6 percentage points
  • Chromium Ore: Increased by 7.4%, adding 0.5 percentage points
  • Coal: Up 10.3%, contributing 2.5 percentage points
  • Gold: Increased by 4.1%, contributing another 0.9 percentage points
  • Other Non-Metallic Minerals: Grew by 11.2%, boosting performance by 0.4 percentage points

Despite these gains, iron sales experienced a significant decline of 30.0%, reducing the total mineral sales value by 3.1 percentage points in October 2024.

The mining sector remains essential to South Africa’s economy, driving foreign exchange and directly employing approximately 484,000 people, according to StatsSA. After facing significant challenges from late 2022 to 2023 due to electricity supply issues and infrastructure bottlenecks, especially at ports, production volumes began to recover in early 2024 and continued to show improvement in October data following a slump from April to August.

The sector appears to be rebounding from a low base, supported by improved economic confidence in South Africa, as indicated by soft data indices over recent months. Looking ahead, mining production is expected to stabilize and grow moderately, driven by increased confidence in the sector. However, mining firms remain cautiously optimistic about ensuring consistent electricity supply and resolving infrastructure challenges in the medium term, as promised by the Government of National Unity.

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Cautious Optimism Amidst Inflation and Reform Momentum
As the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) prepares to announce its interest rate decision later this week, market watchers are closely divided between expectations of a modest cut and maintaining the status quo. With approximately 70% of economists foreseeing a 25-basis point reduction from 7.00% to 6.75%, the prevailing sentiment reflects confidence in economic stabilization. However, a significant proportion remain cautious, suggesting that the SARB may choose to hold interest rates unchanged for another month, given the current inflation trajectory and recent developments in fiscal discipline.
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