Skip to main content
Invest Now
012 012 5270
Copyright © Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd. All rights reserved.
Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider (FSP 46449) in terms of The Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (37 of 2002)
Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
January 23, 2025

View on Demand in the Economy

Retail Sales Performance

November 2024

In November 2024, South Africa’s retail sales rose by 7.7%, surpassing the 5.5% forecast, indicating a resurgence in consumer demand, particularly during Black Friday. The SACCI Business Confidence Index increased, and potential interest rate cuts could further boost spending. Overall, this positive trend supports economic growth as the country moves into 2025.

Retail sales in South Africa exceeded market expectations in November 2024, rising by 7.7% year-on-year and comfortably surpassing the predicted 5.5% increase. This stronger-than-expected growth signals a moderate resurgence in consumer demand, particularly during the “Black Friday” shopping period, suggesting an improvement in consumer finances and increased spending.

The SACCI Business Confidence Index also saw a boost, rising from 114.2 to 118.1 points in November, further supporting growth in demand. Additionally, lower consumer inflation and a potential interest rate reduction from the South African Reserve Bank in early 2025 could further enhance demand.

Key drivers of growth in retail sales included:

  • General Dealers: Up 11.9%, contributing 5.2 percentage points to overall growth.
  • Household Furniture, Appliances, and Equipment: Increased by 9.5%, adding 1.7 percentage points.
  • Textiles and Clothing: Grew by 9.5%, contributing another 1.7 percentage points.

However, the hardware, paint, and glass retail category contracted by 4.3%, reducing total growth by 0.4 percentage points.

The encouraging retail growth is a positive sign for the economy, particularly as fourth-quarter economic data is released. The interest rate reduction in September appears to have provided relief for households and is beginning to show benefits. Moreover, withdrawals from the two-pot system have positively impacted demand from October through Black Friday at the end of November 2024.

Sustaining this momentum through December 2024 and into 2025 will be crucial, as consumer demand remains a key driver of economic growth in South Africa.

Back to News

More Coverage

Mining Production and Sales

August 2025
In August 2025, mining activity in South Africa declined by 0.2% year-on-year, following a 5.1% increase in July.

Manufacturing Production

August 2025
In August, South Africa’s manufacturing output further declined by 1.5%, following a 1.3% decrease in July. This downturn was significantly below market expectations, which had forecasted a 0.3% increase for August. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also fell by 1.4 points, from 50.8 in July to 49.5 in August 2025, indicating a less favourable business climate anticipated by manufacturers for the month.

Reviving South Africa’s Economy

A Balanced Path to Growth, Jobs, and Prosperity
South Africa faces significant economic challenges that threaten the nation’s stability and future prosperity. Over the past decade, sluggish growth, high unemployment—particularly among the youth—and infrastructure decay have become critical issues. These problems are compounded by inconsistent policies, energy shortages, and a prevailing uncertainty in the investment climate. The African National Congress (ANC) has recognised this urgency, unveiling a ten-point plan aimed at revitalising the economy. While this approach shows a concerted effort to address systemic issues, a complementary set of reforms proposed in the Alternative Economic Blueprint offers a promising pathway toward sustainable growth, job creation, and economic freedom.

Gold and Foreign Exchange

September 2025
The South African International Liquidity Position, measured by Net Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves, showed growth in both USD and Rand terms for September 2025.

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

August 2025
In August 2025, credit demand grew by 5.9%, slightly below the anticipated market prediction of 6.0% for the month. Since the initiation of interest rate cuts in September 2024, there has been a noticeable acceleration in overall credit growth, with most subcategories showing increases, particularly in July.
0:00
0:00