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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
January 30, 2025

Interest Rate

25 Basis Point Cut Interest Rate Cut

The interest rate has been cut by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations. The Reserve Bank remains cautiously optimistic, forecasting contained inflation and an economic growth projection of 2.0% in the medium term. Increased disposable income and stable electricity supply are positive signs, despite some supply challenges in mining and manufacturing.

The interest rate has been reduced by another 25 basis points, a move that some market analysts anticipated. The Reserve Bank remains cautious, highlighting its commitment to closely monitoring local and international developments, especially the potential trade war among major economies. Importantly, inflation is expected to remain contained for at least the first half of 2025, with core inflation projected to stay within the target range of 3% to 6%.

Rising confidence levels and a stable electricity supply offer promising signs for economic growth in late 2024 and into 2025, with a growth projection of 2.0% for 2027. Commissioner Lesetja Kganyago emphasised that there are still upside risks, particularly regarding currency depreciation due to increased international tariffs linked to possible trade wars. Additionally, administered prices are expected to rise significantly, well above current inflation levels, which could further influence inflation in the economy.

On the demand side, the economy is rebounding from a low base, supported by increased disposable income resulting from withdrawals from the two-pot pension system and recent interest rate reductions since September 2024. However, the supply side remains subdued, with mining and manufacturing production figures still falling short of expectations.

The Governor also stated that the Bank’s inflation forecast for 2025 is around 4.5%. Future interest rate decisions will be data-driven, taking into account current economic conditions and international developments that may impact the domestic economy later in 2025.

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More Coverage

Mining Production and Sales

August 2025
In August 2025, mining activity in South Africa declined by 0.2% year-on-year, following a 5.1% increase in July.

Manufacturing Production

August 2025
In August, South Africa’s manufacturing output further declined by 1.5%, following a 1.3% decrease in July. This downturn was significantly below market expectations, which had forecasted a 0.3% increase for August. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also fell by 1.4 points, from 50.8 in July to 49.5 in August 2025, indicating a less favourable business climate anticipated by manufacturers for the month.

Reviving South Africa’s Economy

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The South African International Liquidity Position, measured by Net Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves, showed growth in both USD and Rand terms for September 2025.

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In August 2025, credit demand grew by 5.9%, slightly below the anticipated market prediction of 6.0% for the month. Since the initiation of interest rate cuts in September 2024, there has been a noticeable acceleration in overall credit growth, with most subcategories showing increases, particularly in July.
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