Skip to main content
Invest Now
012 012 5270
Copyright © Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd. All rights reserved.
Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd is a registered Financial Services Provider (FSP 46449) in terms of The Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (37 of 2002)
Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
April 7, 2025

South African

Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves

March 2025

The African International Liquidity Position, indicated by Net Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves, experienced growth in both U.S. dollar and Rand terms as of March 2025.

Although the Rand appreciated slightly against the dollar, the value of reserves in both currencies increased during the month. Additionally, gold reserves rose in both Rand and dollar terms, largely due to a 9.0% monthly rise in gold prices; the dollar price remains 41.2% higher compared to the same period in 2024.

Foreign exchange reserves also saw a significant increase from December 2024 to March 2025, despite a slight depreciation and volatility of the Rand following the re-election of former President Trump and subsequent diplomatic tensions between Pretoria and Washington. Key commodities for South Africa, including gold, oil, platinum, and coal, provide valuable insights into the mining sector, fuel prices, and potential inflation. Monitoring these trends is essential, as inflation expectations will influence the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its interest rate decisions later in 2025.

A stable Rand and consistent oil prices support favourable inflation expectations and may impact future interest rate decisions later in 2025. However, circumstances could change rapidly due to ongoing international developments and diplomatic tensions between South Africa and the U.S.

Considering the recent introduction of new tariffs by the Trump administration, it is likely that the Rand will experience continued softness and volatility in the coming weeks, influenced by the effects on international markets observed in recent days.

Back to News

More Coverage

South Africa is trapped in severe economic stagnation, facing a projected 1.0% growth rate for 2026, 33.6% unemployment, and sharp contractions in mining (-12.7%) and manufacturing (-4.3%). Exposed to global fuel shocks via depleted reserves and >R12.00/litre pump levies, the nation is also caught in a fiscal spiral where national debt nears 80% of GDP and interest payments exceed R1 billion daily. Escaping this trap requires four urgent structural reforms: halting interest rate hikes for supply-side inflation, replacing rigid B-BBEE quotas with job-creation incentives, scrapping Expropriation Without Compensation (EWC), and deregulating Transnet’s logistics corridors.

Mining Production and Sales for August 2026

South Africa’s mining sector remains a vital source of jobs, foreign exchange and economic growth, but August’s sharp fall in mining output and sales highlights the mounting pressure on the industry. Rising fuel and energy costs, policy uncertainty and growing trade challenges are weighing on producers, even as firm gold prices and temporary US tariff exemptions offer some relief. Read the full report for a closer look at the latest figures, the forces shaping the sector and what they could mean for mining’s future in South Africa.

MACROECONOMIC & INVESTMENT INSIGHTS | OCTOBER 2026

A $100-plus oil price, a weaker rand and record fuel hikes are putting South Africa’s economy under mounting pressure, while strategic reserves offer little protection. This report examines how imported inflation is squeezing households and businesses, why higher interest rates may do little to tackle its root causes, and how sluggish growth and rising debt are tightening the fiscal squeeze. It also explores the stakes for trade with the United States and AGOA, and the policy choices that could restore investor confidence, unlock growth and put the country on a more resilient path.

International Trade and Trade Balance – August 2026

South Africa recorded a trade surplus of R20.4 billion in August 2026, as exports continued to outpace imports. Export growth has exceeded import growth over the first eight months of the year, reflecting subdued domestic demand among businesses and consumers. But with higher fuel prices and tighter monetary policy expected to weigh on spending, demand is likely to recover only gradually. Read the full report for a closer look at the trade figures and what they could mean for South Africa’s economy in the months ahead.

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE): August 2026

South Africa’s credit market is showing surprising resilience, with credit demand rising by 7.5% in August 2026 despite renewed interest-rate pressure, elevated inflation and mounting household costs. While mortgage advances continued to grow, the fragile recovery in the property market highlights the strain caused by subdued investment, high debt levels and rising municipal and energy expenses. At the same time, sluggish instalment credit growth and continued reliance on short-term borrowing reveal how consumers are navigating increasingly difficult financial conditions. With higher oil prices, geopolitical risks and further SARB tightening adding to the pressure, this report examines what the latest credit trends reveal about household finances, business confidence and the broader South African economy.