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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
August 13, 2025

South Africa

Employment Statistics

2025 Q2

The employment statistics for the second quarter of 2025 show a varied landscape across different sectors, as illustrated in the table above. Certain sectors have experienced job growth compared to the first quarter of 2025, whereas others have seen a reduction in employment opportunities. The unemployment rate has increased slightly, moving from 32.9% in the previous quarter to 33.2% in the second quarter of 2025. However, the expanded unemployment rate has seen a slight decrease from 43.1% to 42.9% in the same period.

In South Africa, formal non-agricultural employment saw a modest increase of 34,000, rising from 11.434 million to 11.468 million. The combined total of formally unemployed individuals in non-agricultural and agricultural sectors rose by just 19,000, stabilising around 16.8 million across the country. The working-age population expanded by about 131,000 in the second quarter, reflecting an annual growth rate of approximately 1.3%.

Unemployment rates ascended in three out of the nine provinces, although Gauteng (+95,000), Eastern Cape (+89,000), and Limpopo (+27,000) reported employment rises. Notable employment gains were observed in the Trade, Construction, and Private Household sectors, despite the informal sector losing 34,000 jobs during the reviewed quarter.

Overall, these employment figures remain somewhat disheartening, with the unemployment rate surpassing the predicted 33.0% for the second quarter of 2025. This deceleration is partly due to persistent global uncertainties, including repercussions from the imposition of US trade tariffs announced in August. Uncertainties surrounding the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) beyond September 2025 pose another challenge, as the South African government has yet to negotiate a new trade agreement with the current US administration.

Ongoing diplomatic tensions between Washington and Pretoria on various issues continue to impact economic confidence and investment decisions in South Africa. Consequently, many businesses are maintaining a cautious “wait-and-see” approach regarding expansion and hiring in the short term, particularly as they face the August 7 deadline for tariffs on exports to the US market.

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More Coverage

South Africa is trapped in severe economic stagnation, facing a projected 1.0% growth rate for 2026, 33.6% unemployment, and sharp contractions in mining (-12.7%) and manufacturing (-4.3%). Exposed to global fuel shocks via depleted reserves and >R12.00/litre pump levies, the nation is also caught in a fiscal spiral where national debt nears 80% of GDP and interest payments exceed R1 billion daily. Escaping this trap requires four urgent structural reforms: halting interest rate hikes for supply-side inflation, replacing rigid B-BBEE quotas with job-creation incentives, scrapping Expropriation Without Compensation (EWC), and deregulating Transnet’s logistics corridors.

Mining Production and Sales for August 2026

South Africa’s mining sector remains a vital source of jobs, foreign exchange and economic growth, but August’s sharp fall in mining output and sales highlights the mounting pressure on the industry. Rising fuel and energy costs, policy uncertainty and growing trade challenges are weighing on producers, even as firm gold prices and temporary US tariff exemptions offer some relief. Read the full report for a closer look at the latest figures, the forces shaping the sector and what they could mean for mining’s future in South Africa.

MACROECONOMIC & INVESTMENT INSIGHTS | OCTOBER 2026

A $100-plus oil price, a weaker rand and record fuel hikes are putting South Africa’s economy under mounting pressure, while strategic reserves offer little protection. This report examines how imported inflation is squeezing households and businesses, why higher interest rates may do little to tackle its root causes, and how sluggish growth and rising debt are tightening the fiscal squeeze. It also explores the stakes for trade with the United States and AGOA, and the policy choices that could restore investor confidence, unlock growth and put the country on a more resilient path.

International Trade and Trade Balance – August 2026

South Africa recorded a trade surplus of R20.4 billion in August 2026, as exports continued to outpace imports. Export growth has exceeded import growth over the first eight months of the year, reflecting subdued domestic demand among businesses and consumers. But with higher fuel prices and tighter monetary policy expected to weigh on spending, demand is likely to recover only gradually. Read the full report for a closer look at the trade figures and what they could mean for South Africa’s economy in the months ahead.

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE): August 2026

South Africa’s credit market is showing surprising resilience, with credit demand rising by 7.5% in August 2026 despite renewed interest-rate pressure, elevated inflation and mounting household costs. While mortgage advances continued to grow, the fragile recovery in the property market highlights the strain caused by subdued investment, high debt levels and rising municipal and energy expenses. At the same time, sluggish instalment credit growth and continued reliance on short-term borrowing reveal how consumers are navigating increasingly difficult financial conditions. With higher oil prices, geopolitical risks and further SARB tightening adding to the pressure, this report examines what the latest credit trends reveal about household finances, business confidence and the broader South African economy.