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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
February 18, 2025

Employment Statistics in South Africa

Q4 2024

The fourth quarter of 2024 shows promising employment trends in South Africa, with the unemployment rate falling from 32.1% to 31.9%. Formal non-agricultural jobs increased by 132,000, reflecting renewed economic confidence and a stable electricity supply, contributing to a more hopeful labour market.

The employment statistics for the fourth quarter of 2024 indicate positive trends, with the unemployment rate decreasing from 32.1% in the third quarter to 31.9%. The expanded unemployment rate, however, remained steady at 41.9% from the third to the fourth quarter.

In South Africa, formal non-agricultural employment increased by over 132,000, rising from 16.9 million to 17.1 million in the fourth quarter. Correspondingly, the number of unemployed individuals declined by 20,000, stabilizing around 8.0 million.

Unemployment rates decreased in five out of the nine provinces, although Gauteng, Free State, and Northwest provinces saw increases in unemployment. Employment growth was observed across various sectors: the informal sector added 34,000 jobs and the formal sector gained 90,000 jobs, while the agricultural sector experienced a loss of 11,000 jobs.

Overall, these employment figures are encouraging, as the unemployment rate fell below the consensus forecast of 32.4% for the fourth quarter. This decline can be attributed to a reliable electricity supply and renewed economic confidence, which are beginning to yield tangible improvements in South Africa’s often challenging labour market as a developing country.

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More Coverage

Retail Sales Performance

September 2025
Retail sales in South Africa rose by 3.1% in September, slightly exceeding market expectations of 3.0%, as anticipated by analysts for that month. This growth indicates a continuing recovery in consumer demand within the economy.

SARB Lowers Interest Rates as Stability Improves

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has taken a prudent and measured step by reducing its base interest rate from 7.0% to 6.75%, marking a significant moment in the country’s monetary policy trajectory. This decision, made by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), underscores the bank’s cautious optimism about South Africa’s economic outlook amidst a complex global backdrop.

Consumer Inflation

October 2025
In September 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a modest rise to 3.4%, slightly up from 3.3% in August, yet just below the analysts’ forecast of 3.5%.

Why Aluma does not Force an Interest Cut

Cautious Optimism Amidst Inflation and Reform Momentum
As the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) prepares to announce its interest rate decision later this week, market watchers are closely divided between expectations of a modest cut and maintaining the status quo. With approximately 70% of economists foreseeing a 25-basis point reduction from 7.00% to 6.75%, the prevailing sentiment reflects confidence in economic stabilization. However, a significant proportion remain cautious, suggesting that the SARB may choose to hold interest rates unchanged for another month, given the current inflation trajectory and recent developments in fiscal discipline.

Mining Production and Sales

September 2025
In September 2025, mining activity in South Africa increased by 1.2% year-on-year, after remaining unchanged in August.
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