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October 3, 2025

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

August 2025

In August 2025, credit demand grew by 5.9%, slightly below the anticipated market prediction of 6.0% for the month. Since the initiation of interest rate cuts in September 2024, there has been a noticeable acceleration in overall credit growth, with most subcategories showing increases, particularly in July.

However, mortgage advances and credit for acquiring fixed assets continue to be restrained despite the ongoing reductions in interest rates. The South African property market remains sluggish, indicating low capital expenditure from both households and businesses. This sector’s recovery is being hindered by high consumer debt levels, stagnant wages, and the rising cost of living. Nevertheless, the full advantages of lower interest rates are projected to emerge later in 2025, as household disposable incomes are boosted by positive market sentiment and the potential for additional rate cuts by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB).

In August, instalment credit sales rose once more by 0.7% on a month-on-month basis, achieving an annual growth rate of 7.8%. Over the past two years, consumers have increasingly turned to short-term credit to cope with rising living costs, as evidenced by an 8.5% increase in other loans and advances, slightly down from the 8.9% noted in July.

With inflation remaining favourable, further rate reductions are expected to enhance disposable incomes, thereby supporting increased demand for goods and fixed assets in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 and beyond.


More Coverage

September 2025
Retail sales in South Africa rose by 3.1% in September, slightly exceeding market expectations of 3.0%, as anticipated by analysts for that month. This growth indicates a continuing recovery in consumer demand within the economy.
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has taken a prudent and measured step by reducing its base interest rate from 7.0% to 6.75%, marking a significant moment in the country’s monetary policy trajectory. This decision, made by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), underscores the bank’s cautious optimism about South Africa’s economic outlook amidst a complex global backdrop.
October 2025
In September 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a modest rise to 3.4%, slightly up from 3.3% in August, yet just below the analysts’ forecast of 3.5%.
Cautious Optimism Amidst Inflation and Reform Momentum
As the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) prepares to announce its interest rate decision later this week, market watchers are closely divided between expectations of a modest cut and maintaining the status quo. With approximately 70% of economists foreseeing a 25-basis point reduction from 7.00% to 6.75%, the prevailing sentiment reflects confidence in economic stabilization. However, a significant proportion remain cautious, suggesting that the SARB may choose to hold interest rates unchanged for another month, given the current inflation trajectory and recent developments in fiscal discipline.
September 2025
In September 2025, mining activity in South Africa increased by 1.2% year-on-year, after remaining unchanged in August.
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