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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
July 7, 2025

International Trade and Trade Balance

May 2025

International trade measures South Africa’s demand for foreign goods and services compared to its demand for domestically produced products in global markets. The country primarily exports raw materials such as base metals, gold, precious metals, and minerals, while importing value-added products like vehicles, chemicals, and machinery.

In May 2025, South Africa recorded a trade surplus of R21.67 billion, indicating that exports once again exceeded imports for the month. Over the first five months of 2025, total exports increased by just 1.1% from R814.3 billion in 2024 to R823.3 billion. Meanwhile, imports declined by 1.2%, from R771.83 billion to R762.83 billion, reflecting a continued slowdown in demand.

Looking ahead, demand may experience slight growth in 2025, supported by a recent interest rate cut announced in late May. Lower interest rates, along with low inflation, a relatively stable and appreciated Rand against the US dollar, and reduced consumer and producer inflation, could further boost domestic demand in the coming months.

There is optimism that South Africa’s economy will build on the confidence gained in 2024, benefiting from low inflation and a less restrictive monetary policy. This positive outlook is supported by potential interest rate reductions later this year and government-approved infrastructure projects aimed at alleviating bottlenecks caused by outdated rail and port facilities in coastal regions that currently hinder international trade.

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