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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
May 14, 2025

Employment Statistics in South Africa

Q1 2025

The employment statistics for the first quarter of 2025 present a mixed picture across different sectors, as detailed in the table above. Some sectors experienced increased employment compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, while others saw a decline in job opportunities during this period. Overall, the unemployment rate edged higher from 31.9% in the previous quarter to 32.9% in Q1 2025. Meanwhile, the expanded unemployment rate decreased slightly from 41.1% to 40.3% during the same timeframe.

In South Africa, formal non-agricultural employment declined by 291,000, dropping from 17.1 million in the fourth quarter to 16.8 million in Q1 2025. Conversely, the number of unemployed individuals increased by 237,000, stabilizing around 8.2 million. The working-age population grew by approximately 532,000 in the first quarter, representing an increase of about 1.3%.

Unemployment rates rose in six of the nine provinces, although Gauteng (+9,000), Western Cape (+49,000), and the Free State (+4,000) experienced employment increases. Decreases were observed in sectors such as Trade, Community and Social Services, Construction, Mining, and Manufacturing. Conversely, employment grew in the Transport, Finance, and Utility sectors. Notably, the informal sector added 17,000 jobs.

Overall, these employment figures are somewhat discouraging, with the unemployment rate surpassing the consensus forecast of 32.4% for Q1 2025. This slowdown can be attributed to ongoing international uncertainties, including the US tariff war against China and other nations, as well as concerns regarding the future of the AGOA agreement beyond September 2025. Diplomatic tensions between Washington and Pretoria related to various issues have also weighed on economic confidence. Consequently, many businesses appear to have adopted a cautious “wait-and-see” approach regarding expansion and hiring in the short term. However, the recent 90-day suspension of the US-China tariff war could positively influence both local and global markets, potentially boosting employment figures in the upcoming quarters.

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More Coverage

South Africa is trapped in severe economic stagnation, facing a projected 1.0% growth rate for 2026, 33.6% unemployment, and sharp contractions in mining (-12.7%) and manufacturing (-4.3%). Exposed to global fuel shocks via depleted reserves and >R12.00/litre pump levies, the nation is also caught in a fiscal spiral where national debt nears 80% of GDP and interest payments exceed R1 billion daily. Escaping this trap requires four urgent structural reforms: halting interest rate hikes for supply-side inflation, replacing rigid B-BBEE quotas with job-creation incentives, scrapping Expropriation Without Compensation (EWC), and deregulating Transnet’s logistics corridors.

Mining Production and Sales for August 2026

South Africa’s mining sector remains a vital source of jobs, foreign exchange and economic growth, but August’s sharp fall in mining output and sales highlights the mounting pressure on the industry. Rising fuel and energy costs, policy uncertainty and growing trade challenges are weighing on producers, even as firm gold prices and temporary US tariff exemptions offer some relief. Read the full report for a closer look at the latest figures, the forces shaping the sector and what they could mean for mining’s future in South Africa.

MACROECONOMIC & INVESTMENT INSIGHTS | OCTOBER 2026

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International Trade and Trade Balance – August 2026

South Africa recorded a trade surplus of R20.4 billion in August 2026, as exports continued to outpace imports. Export growth has exceeded import growth over the first eight months of the year, reflecting subdued domestic demand among businesses and consumers. But with higher fuel prices and tighter monetary policy expected to weigh on spending, demand is likely to recover only gradually. Read the full report for a closer look at the trade figures and what they could mean for South Africa’s economy in the months ahead.

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE): August 2026

South Africa’s credit market is showing surprising resilience, with credit demand rising by 7.5% in August 2026 despite renewed interest-rate pressure, elevated inflation and mounting household costs. While mortgage advances continued to grow, the fragile recovery in the property market highlights the strain caused by subdued investment, high debt levels and rising municipal and energy expenses. At the same time, sluggish instalment credit growth and continued reliance on short-term borrowing reveal how consumers are navigating increasingly difficult financial conditions. With higher oil prices, geopolitical risks and further SARB tightening adding to the pressure, this report examines what the latest credit trends reveal about household finances, business confidence and the broader South African economy.