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July 16, 2026

Mining Production and Sales for April 2026

In May 2026 South Africa’s mining sector slipped into contraction, down 5.4% month on month after April’s revised 8.0% gain — driven by steep declines in iron ore ( 12.7), coal ( 6.1) and PGMs ( 4.4) that together shaved several percentage points off output; mining output for the rolling quarter fell 1.7%, led by drops in manganese, other metallics and coal. Yet nominal mining sales surged 13.9% on a 70.5% jump in platinum, stronger gold and coal receipts, underscoring a split between weaker physical production and firmer export earnings. With the sector employing roughly 476,000 people, having expanded in Q1 2026 amid higher gold and platinum prices, the industry remains central to South Africa’s economy, even as it grapples with new trade tariffs (including US and proposed manganese measures), the loss of AGOA preferences, and uncertainty around the Mining Charter. Read the full report for detailed drivers, regional implications, and policy paths to stabilise output and sustain foreign earnings resilience

In May 2026, South Africa’s mining activity contracted by 5.4% following the revised 8.0% increase recorded in April 2026. This contraction was predominantly driven by:

  • A 12.7% decrease in Iron ore mining production, which contributed -2.1 percentage points to the overall mining output for the month.
  • Coal production decreased by 6.1%% during May, while it subtracted 1.5 percentage points from mining production growth and
  • A 4.4% contraction in PGM production, which stripped an additional 1.21 percentage points from total mining output growth for the month.

For the rolling quarter ending May 2026, compared with the previous rolling quarter, seasonally adjusted mining output decreased by 1.7%. This decrease was primarily due to:

  • A 5.8% decrease in manganese mining, which decreased total mining production by 0.5 percentage points,
  • A decrease in mining of ‘other’ metallic minerals, which contracted by 16.2% and subtracted 0.4 percentage points for the quarter under review, and
  • Coal mining, which declined by 1.8% and subtracted an additional 0.4 percentage points from mining output for the quarter.

In May, nominal mining sales rose 13.9%. This positive trend was notably supported by:

  • A 70.5% surge in platinum sales, which added 13.2 percentage points to overall mining sales growth.
  • Another 7.1% rise in gold sales, contributing 2.0 percentage points and
  • Coal sales, which grew by 8.5% and added another 1.8 percentage points towards overall mining sales growth for May 2026.

The mining sector remains vital to South Africa’s economy, generating foreign exchange and employing approximately 476,000 people, an increase of around 32,000 from the previous quarter, according to StatsSA labour statistics for the first quarter of 2026. According to the latest GDP data, the mining sector grew by 5.7% during the first quarter of 2026, driven by a notable increase in global gold and platinum prices due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the subsequent flight to safe-haven assets such as gold. This sector remains crucial for the South African economy due to the number of people employed within it and in associated auxiliary businesses, and its importance in earning foreign reserves.

However, challenges persist, including concerns over exports to the US following new tariff measures introduced on 7 August, proposed export tariffs on manganese, and import tariffs on steel exports to the Eurozone. The sector also faces challenges related to the loss of AGOA benefits in September and ongoing issues with the new Mining Charter.

Internationally, tensions between the US and China are rising, primarily due to trade disputes and tariff wars. These issues are further complicated by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly between the US, Israel, and Iran, as well as the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This situation continues to drive up fuel and production costs for South Africa’s manufacturing and mining sectors in the short- to medium-term, at least.

These geopolitical challenges and the conflict in the Middle East are disrupting global markets and limiting trade, as evidenced by data released since the conflict began. However, there is some good news: certain mining materials essential to steelmaking remain temporarily exempt from high US tariffs. This exemption offers some relief to the mining sector, which is vital to South Africa’s economy, providing jobs and foreign exchange and supporting overall growth.

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South Africa is trapped in severe economic stagnation, facing a projected 1.0% growth rate for 2026, 33.6% unemployment, and sharp contractions in mining (-12.7%) and manufacturing (-4.3%). Exposed to global fuel shocks via depleted reserves and >R12.00/litre pump levies, the nation is also caught in a fiscal spiral where national debt nears 80% of GDP and interest payments exceed R1 billion daily. Escaping this trap requires four urgent structural reforms: halting interest rate hikes for supply-side inflation, replacing rigid B-BBEE quotas with job-creation incentives, scrapping Expropriation Without Compensation (EWC), and deregulating Transnet’s logistics corridors.

Mining Production and Sales for August 2026

South Africa’s mining sector remains a vital source of jobs, foreign exchange and economic growth, but August’s sharp fall in mining output and sales highlights the mounting pressure on the industry. Rising fuel and energy costs, policy uncertainty and growing trade challenges are weighing on producers, even as firm gold prices and temporary US tariff exemptions offer some relief. Read the full report for a closer look at the latest figures, the forces shaping the sector and what they could mean for mining’s future in South Africa.

MACROECONOMIC & INVESTMENT INSIGHTS | OCTOBER 2026

A $100-plus oil price, a weaker rand and record fuel hikes are putting South Africa’s economy under mounting pressure, while strategic reserves offer little protection. This report examines how imported inflation is squeezing households and businesses, why higher interest rates may do little to tackle its root causes, and how sluggish growth and rising debt are tightening the fiscal squeeze. It also explores the stakes for trade with the United States and AGOA, and the policy choices that could restore investor confidence, unlock growth and put the country on a more resilient path.

International Trade and Trade Balance – August 2026

South Africa recorded a trade surplus of R20.4 billion in August 2026, as exports continued to outpace imports. Export growth has exceeded import growth over the first eight months of the year, reflecting subdued domestic demand among businesses and consumers. But with higher fuel prices and tighter monetary policy expected to weigh on spending, demand is likely to recover only gradually. Read the full report for a closer look at the trade figures and what they could mean for South Africa’s economy in the months ahead.

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE): August 2026

South Africa’s credit market is showing surprising resilience, with credit demand rising by 7.5% in August 2026 despite renewed interest-rate pressure, elevated inflation and mounting household costs. While mortgage advances continued to grow, the fragile recovery in the property market highlights the strain caused by subdued investment, high debt levels and rising municipal and energy expenses. At the same time, sluggish instalment credit growth and continued reliance on short-term borrowing reveal how consumers are navigating increasingly difficult financial conditions. With higher oil prices, geopolitical risks and further SARB tightening adding to the pressure, this report examines what the latest credit trends reveal about household finances, business confidence and the broader South African economy.