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Frederick Mitchell, Chief Economist | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd
Frederick Mitchell
March 10, 2026

International Trade and Trade Balance – January 2026

South Africa recorded a R9.3 billion trade surplus in January 2026, as exports of raw materials continued to exceed imports of value-added goods. Exports increased while imports declined compared to 2025, reflecting relatively weak domestic demand. However, lower interest rates and stable inflation could support a gradual recovery in demand during 2026.

International trade measures South Africa’s demand for foreign goods and services relative to its demand for domestically produced products in the global market. The country predominantly exports raw materials, including base metals, gold, other precious metals, and minerals, while importing value-added products such as vehicles, chemicals, and machinery.

In January 2026, South Africa recorded a trade surplus of R9.3 billion, indicating that exports once again exceeded imports. Over the last three months ending January 2026, exports have grown by 3.9% compared to the same period in 2025, from R488 million in 2025 to R507 million in 2026. Meanwhile, imports declined by 4.0%, from R457 million in 2025 to R437 million in January 2026. This reflects the nature of relatively low international demand from South African businesses and consumers at this stage.

Looking ahead, demand is expected to grow slightly in 2026, supported by the 25-basis-point interest rate cut announced at the end of November 2025, which will take full effect just yet. Lower interest rates, coupled with low inflation, a relatively stable and appreciated Rand, albeit under pressure as of late, against the US dollar and stable consumer and producer prices, could help to stimulate domestic demand in the coming months.

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Crypto Currencies and the coming “Regulatory Firewall”

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 A view on Demand in the Economy: Retail Sales performance – February 2026 Data

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Consumer Inflation – March 2026

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The Great Commodity Seesaw: How South Africa’s Gold Shield is Blunting the Oil Shock

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From Grid Crisis to Digital Gold: South Africa’s New Crypto-Energy Nexus

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