In the News

South Africa’s Economic Outlook

May 20, 2025

South Africa stands at a crossroads where economic challenges threaten to stall progress, yet opportunities exist for a prudent, reform-based approach to steer the nation toward stability and renewed growth. Despite setbacks—including rising unemployment, sectoral contractions, and international diplomatic tensions—South Africa’s resilience and potential remain evident. The path forward requires responsible governance, targeted reforms, and a firm commitment to safeguarding strategic industries and international relationships.

A Positive Turning Point for Global Trade and Markets

May 13, 2025

The recent negotiated agreement between the United States and China marks a significant milestone in international trade relations, providing a much-needed breather for the global economy. By agreeing to reduce tariffs for a 90-day period—U.S. tariffs cut from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs from 125% to 10%—both nations have demonstrated a renewed commitment to cooperation.

Navigating International and Domestic Winds

May 9, 2025

In a world of interconnected economies, global developments unfailingly ripple through national borders. For South Africa, recent international and domestic events offer a complex tapestry of challenges and opportunities that could shape its economic trajectory.

Anticipated Monetary Policy Movements

May 5, 2025

As May 2025 approaches, the global economic landscape set to be shaped significantly by the upcoming interest rate decisions of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) and domestically by South Africa’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) following what happens with the Fed rate in the US. Both central banks operate within interconnected financial systems and face complex domestic and international challenges. Their decisions will have profound implications not only for their respective economies but also in the US’s case, global markets, especially given the geopolitical tensions and trade dynamics currently at play.

Aluma Capital Invests USD 5 Million in TLG Africa Growth Impact Fund II to Support SME Growth Across Africa

May 1, 2025

South African asset manager Aluma Capital has announced a USD 5 million private equity investment to the TLG Africa Growth Impact Fund II (AGIF II), a private credit fund aimed at supporting the growth and resilience of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) across Africa.

Financial Prudence in Action

April 25, 2025

On April 24, 2025, the Minister of Finance announced a significant decision that resonates positively with South African households and businesses alike: the proposed 0.5% increase in Value Added Tax (VAT) will not be implemented. This decision comes in the backdrop of mounting political and public pressure, culminating in a concerted effort by the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), who took the Finance Ministry to the Western Cape High Court in opposition to this tax increase.

VAT Increase Scrapped

April 24, 2025

The proposed VAT increase has been canceled, as the Minister of Finance announced last night that the 0.5% hike will not go forward due to mounting political and public pressure. This decision follows legal action from the DA and EFF, which sought to block the increase, and criticism from the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO).

Navigating the Economic Crosscurrents

April 22, 2025

As South Africa faces a complex interplay of international dynamics and persistent domestic challenges, the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is confronted with the critical question of whether to adjust interest rates further downwards following the lowering of the repo rate by 25 basis-points each meeting in September 2024, November 2024 and again in January 2024. This dilemma is exacerbated by external pressures, particularly those stemming from the United States and its recent tariff policies, which add complexity to the SARB’s monetary policy landscape.

Trump-China Trade War

April 15, 2025

The ongoing trade war between the United States and China represents one of the most significant geopolitical developments in recent years, impacting bilateral trade, economic growth, and international partnerships. As both nations impose steep tariffs—145% on Chinese goods entering the U.S. and 125% on American products entering China—the situation continues to evolve, with notable implications for global trade networks, including South Africa.

The Impact of Local and Global Recession on the South African Economy in 2025

April 8, 2025

As the world enters a potentially recessionary phase due to factors such as the recent tariff impositions by the Trump administration, South Africa faces an intricate web of challenges that threaten to exacerbate its already precarious economic situation. With fiscal debt soaring to approximately 75-76% of GDP and a budget deficit projected at 5%, the implications of a recession on employment, trade, and government finances are profound.

Trump’s Tariff Tactic

April 3, 2025

In a striking escalation of trade policy, President Donald Trump has imposed a sweeping 30% blanket tariff on imports from South Africa, effective April 2. Citing what he termed “persistent and unfair trade practices,” the former president labelled South Africa one of the “worst offenders” among U.S. trading partners—a move that threatens to upend longstanding economic ties between the two nations.

Lower Consumer Confidence

March 26, 2025

The Ripple Effect

March 20, 2025

In a landmark development for the digital asset industry, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has formally withdrawn its appeal in the long-running legal case against Ripple Labs. This pivotal decision has far-reaching implications—not only for Ripple’s native token, XRP, but also for the broader landscape of cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which are fast emerging as a bridge between traditional finance and the digital economy.

Tax, VAT and Inflation

March 13, 2025

The South African state budget was tabled on March 12, 2025, after a month-long delay, with an increase in the VAT rate becoming a central point of contention among members of the Government of National Unity (GNU) and other parliamentary parties.

Budget Speech 2025

March 12, 2025

Much has happened in the last twelve months as well as the last month since the postponement of the February 2025’s budget. The big talking point and “bone of contention” was the mooted 2% increase in VAT. This increase was met with fierce resistance and made “balancing the budget” quite difficult, as the government has to decide between increasing taxes of cutting expenditures, leaving the Government of National Unity (GNU) between a “rock and a hard place” as it currently stands. The increase in VAT or other taxes sprout from the various expenditure items the government announced or want to implement which among other things include the National Health Insurance (NHI), a transformation fund and continuation of the Covid-19 relief grant and the possible introduction of a Basic Income Grant (BIG).

A Sticky Affair

March 6, 2025

The Laffer Curve is an economic theory that describes the relationship between tax rates and tax revenue. Proposed by economist Arthur Laffer, the curve suggests that there is an optimal tax rate that maximizes government revenue without discouraging productivity, investment, and economic growth. The central idea is that increasing tax rates beyond a certain threshold can lead to diminishing returns; higher taxes may disincentivize work, entrepreneurship, and investment, ultimately reducing the overall tax base.

Rising Tensions

February 28, 2025

In recent months, diplomatic relations between South Africa and the United States have taken a troubling turn, particularly highlighted by a February 26, 2025 article in Foreign Policy. The piece, which has been criticized for its anti-U.S. sentiments, poses severe implications for the future of U.S.-South Africa relations and raises the spectre of targeted financial sanctions against South African leadership, including President Cyril Ramaphosa and influential figures within the African National Congress (ANC).

Economic Overview

February 18, 2025

Significant developments have transpired since January 2025. The United States has elected a new administration, with Donald Trump returning to the White House. His administration is quickly implementing a series of executive orders that impact various areas, including politics, economics, and the release of classified documents related to JFK, RFK, and Martin Luther King Jr. Trump has emphasized the importance of oil as a vital asset within the U.S. framework, prioritising oil exploration and drilling to enhance energy independence.

Cargo ship transporting export containers, symbolizing South Africa US trade relations

South Africa’s Trade Relations with the United States

February 14, 2025

South Africa has long enjoyed a dynamic trade relationship with the United States, characterised by mutual benefits and significant economic exchanges. The trade landscape is defined by a range of exports and imports that reflect the strength and diversity of both economies. In this article, we explore the specific products and services traded between South Africa and the US, the implications of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), and the potential impact of changes to this pivotal agreement.

Predictions on the Budget Speech 2025

February 13, 2025

Much has happened in the last twelve months that will make the February 2025’s budget one of the most important budget statements in a very long time. This will be the 1st budget of the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) after the general elections in May of 2024. This will also be a budget in the midst of an international diplomatic spat between Pretoria and Washington and suspension of US aid to South Africa with regards to the President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief (PEPFAR) program.

Love your finances, a Valentine's approach to Financial Well Being | Aluma Capital (pty) Ltd

Loving Your Finances

February 11, 2025

As February ushers in the month of love, it presents an excellent opportunity to extend that affection to our finances. Just as relationships thrive on care and attention, so too do our financial well-being and security. By cultivating healthy financial habits, we can set the foundation for long-term wealth and prosperity.

Review of the State of the Nation Address 2025

Review of the State of the Nation 2025

February 7, 2025

President Ramaphosa’s State of The Nation address was yet again filled with promises of reforms, growth and employment promises, nothing that the South African citizens have not heard before. Same old “stories” in different wrapping paper, and like Hillary Clinton once famously said “this was the biggest nothing-burger ever”.

Sona 2025 Predictions | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

State of the Nation 2025

February 6, 2025

Recent events have captured the attention of South Africa’s public and political landscape, particularly following President Donald Trump’s announcement to suspend U.S. aid to South Africa. This decision came after President Ramaphosa signed the contentious Expropriation Without Compensation (EWC) Bill into law, provoking strong reactions both locally and internationally.

South Africa, Trump and the EWC

February 4, 2025

January 2025 came with some uncertainty when contentious bills were signed into law by President Ramaphosa. These bills were the now Bela Act and the Expropriation Without Compensation (EWC) Act, with the latter having had some serious international concerns, and in particular the US, where President Trump didn’t mince his words regarding his administration’s view on the current development and “constitutional amendment” that was pushed through by the ANC led government without proper consultation process with the Government of National Unity (GNU) partners.

Economic Outlook | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Economic Outlook for South Africa in 2025

January 27, 2025

As 2025 begins, South Africa finds itself in a phase of renewed productivity, building on the momentum from 2024. However, the new year brings fresh challenges that the nation must address to foster economic growth and attract new investment in the short to medium term.

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Highlights of Trump’s 2025 Inauguration Speech

January 21, 2025

On January 20, 2025, Donald J. Trump was inaugurated for a second term as the 47th President of the United States. His inauguration speech articulated a vision for America that resonated with citizens seeking strong leadership and economic growth.

Financial Resolutions | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Financial New Year’s Resolutions for a Prosperous 2025

December 19, 2024

As the New Year approaches, many people take the opportunity to reflect on their lives and set resolutions for the future. This year, consider making financial resolutions that can lead to lasting improvements in your financial health. By focusing on budgeting, saving, and investing wisely, you can set yourself on the path to achieving your financial goals in 2025 and beyond. Let us look at a five-step plan to achieve a financial prosperous 2025.

Reflections 2024 | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Challenges, Changes, and New Horizons

December 12, 2024

To reflect on 2024, what a remarkable year it has been! There were significant developments both locally and globally—not just economically but politically as well. We can all agree, “what a year it has been!”

Black Friday Cart | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

The Impact of Black Friday on the South African Economy

November 21, 2024

Black Friday has rapidly become a significant shopping event in South Africa, boosting both retail and wholesale trade sales. Although consumer demand faced pressure in 2024 due to rising costs, the anticipated 25 basis point interest rate cut may enhance spending capacity. This increase in consumer spending creates a ripple effect, stimulating production and potential job creation. Black Friday not only improves economic activity but also raises tax revenues, benefiting public services. However, consumers should remain cautious of accumulating debt. Overall, Black Friday plays a crucial role in driving economic growth in South Africa.

The Trump Administration

November 19, 2024

The landslide victory and re-election of former President Trump has already led to some interesting appointments in his upcoming administration. There was plenty of speculation about “who would make the cut,” but after several high-profile endorsements, it became clear who had the ear of the President-Elect as advisors.

Market Resilience Trump | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Investment Resilience

November 12, 2024

The landscape of international stock markets and cryptocurrencies has witnessed significant movement and resilience since Donald Trump’s re-election on November 6, 2024. This electoral outcome has injected a renewed sense of optimism among investors, influenced by expected continuities in pro-business policies, tax reforms, and regulatory frameworks that foster growth and innovation.

Kamilla Harris | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

The Implications of Kamala Harris’s Tax Plan

November 4, 2024

As the United States approaches the 2024 presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris’s tax plan has sparked significant debate across political and economic spheres. Central to her proposal is the controversial initiative to tax unrealized gains. While intended to address income inequality and bolster revenue from wealthier individuals, this proposal poses serious risks to financial markets, liquidity, and the broader economy. Understanding these implications is essential, as they could undermine capital accumulation and stifle business expansion.

The Implications of U.S. Presidential Elections

October 28, 2024

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the White House or Kamala Harris securing victory raises important questions about the implications for South Africa. Each candidate presents both opportunities and challenges that could significantly impact the South African economy and its trade relations under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

The Rise of Cryptocurrencies: Opportunities, Challenges, and the South African Context

October 21, 2024

In recent years, cryptocurrencies have transformed the financial landscape, capturing the attention of investors and consumers alike. As younger generations increasingly turn to digital currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, alternative investments are becoming more appealing. This growth is not without challenges, including risks associated with nefarious uses and regulatory hurdles.

People at their Businesses | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Small and Medium Enterprises: The Lifeblood of the South African Economy

October 14, 2024

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are often heralded as the backbone and lifeblood of the South African economy. With a significant contribution to job creation, economic growth, and innovation, SMEs play a vital role in shaping the country’s economic landscape.

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Embracing Alternative Investments

October 7, 2024

As the investment landscape evolves, the younger generation is increasingly turning to alternative investments, moving beyond traditional asset classes like stocks and bonds. This shift is driven by a desire for diversification, higher potential returns, and innovative investment opportunities that align with their values. But what exactly are alternative investments, and why are they gaining traction among young investors in specific?

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The Economic Outlook

October 4, 2024

As we approach the end of the year, the South African economy appears to be on an upward trajectory, with newfound optimism following the elections in May 2024. Economic growth exceeded expectations in the second quarter, although challenges remain that could affect performance in the medium term. The South African government is acutely aware of these obstacles and is committed to addressing them swiftly.

Interest Rate Basis Point Decrease | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

An Expected 25 Basis Point Interest Rate Cut

September 19, 2024

In response to shifting economic conditions, the South African Reserve Bank has announced a 25-basis point reduction in interest rates. This decision reflects lower inflation expectations and aims to stimulate growth amid persistent economic challenges. With consumer confidence rising and a more stable electricity supply on the horizon, the MPC is optimistic about fostering a recovery in the latter part of 2024. However, ongoing concerns about consumer indebtedness and inflationary pressures remain critical considerations for future policy.

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Interest Rates

September 19, 2024

Today we are expecting a drop in the Interest Rate based on the international developments and what is happening in other emerging markets. Providing a potential drop of 25 basis points, or more.

Plants Growing on Money | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Retirement funds and the Two-Pot system

September 12, 2024

The two-pot retirement system has garnered significant attention from commentators and market analysts regarding its impact on fund flows and the reasons behind its introduction by the government. According to the National Treasury, many South Africans are not saving enough for a comfortable retirement.

Trump vs Harris debate – What we’ve learned

September 11, 2024

The debate featured tense exchanges as both candidates aggressively challenged each other on various hot topics. Key issues included inflation and whether U.S. citizens are better off than they were four years ago, particularly in light of rising energy costs. Former President Trump pressed Vice President Harris on her stance regarding energy and fracking, highlighting her continued support for a ban on fracking in the U.S. Inflationary fears persist, with many consumers feeling worse off than before. Advocates argue that energy independence could help reduce gas prices and lower inflation.

Economic Performance Statistics | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

South African Economic Performance

September 5, 2024

The South African economy avoided a technical recession by expanding 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2024. This growth was slightly above the 0.3% anticipated by most market analysts.

Xago Financial Institution | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Aluma Expands Its Horizons with XAGO

September 4, 2024

Aluma Capital’s Private Equity team is pleased to announce its latest investment, a strategic acquisition of a stake in XAGO Technologies.

International Trade | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

International Trade and Trade Balance

September 4, 2024

International trade measures South Africa’s demand for foreign goods and services against the demand for domestically manufactured products internationally.

Private Sector Credit Extension Report | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

August 30, 2024

Credit demand remains under pressure as high interest rates still weigh on consumers and businesses decision to borrow more. With lower inflation levels recorded in both producer and consumer inflation hopefully the Reserve Bank will start an interest rate lowering cycle to aid a struggling South African economy that has been stagnant for the couple of years.

Charts Of Budget Data | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Interest Rate Prediction

August 27, 2024

The inflation rate has decreased significantly in the first half of 2024, dropping from 7.3% in July 2022 to 4.7% in July 2024. This decline is due to higher interest rates, rising consumer debt, and reduced overall demand, which have put downward pressure on prices throughout the economy.

Overview Of The GNU | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

The South African Economy: An Overview since the GNU

August 16, 2024

Current Economic and Political Climate in South Africa

The pressing question on everyone’s mind is: “Where are we as a country and economy, and where are we headed?” This question can only be partially answered given the developments since the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) at the end of May 2024. As we assess the situation two months in, another question arises: “Are we still in a honeymoon phase, and if so, how long will it last?“

Financial Lines Climbing on Charts | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Global Financial Markets in Turmoil Amid Recession Concerns and Geopolitical Tensions

August 9, 2024

As recession fears grip the United States, combined with overheated gains in the technology sector and tumultuous carry trade movements between the US and Japan, both economies and their stock markets face unprecedented challenges. On Monday morning, a dramatic sell-off hit both US and Japanese stock markets. The Japanese market experienced its most severe drop since the 1987 crash, with the Nikkei plunging 6.5% and some blue-chip stocks losing over 10% in a single day.

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From Housewife to Financial Hustler

March 14, 2024

How investment trends for women have evolved.

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The Benefits of having a Will: Ensuring your legacy

December 5, 2023

Creating a Will is an essential part of estate planning, however, many of us tend to procrastinate or neglect this crucial step. Let’s discuss a few of the benefits of having and updating your Will:

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Private Equity: Income

Private Equity: Flexi Access

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Fixed Return Income Portfolio

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