Market Overviews

Producer Price Inflation

November 27, 2025

In October 2025, producer price inflation rose to 2.9%, an increase from 2.3% in September. However, on a monthly basis, there was a slight decline in producer prices, down by 0.1%.

Retail Sales Performance

November 24, 2025

Retail sales in South Africa rose by 3.1% in September, slightly exceeding market expectations of 3.0%, as anticipated by analysts for that month. This growth indicates a continuing recovery in consumer demand within the economy.

Consumer Inflation

November 19, 2025

In September 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a modest rise to 3.4%, slightly up from 3.3% in August, yet just below the analysts’ forecast of 3.5%.

Mining Production and Sales

November 14, 2025

In September 2025, mining activity in South Africa increased by 1.2% year-on-year, after remaining unchanged in August.

Manufacturing Production

November 12, 2025

In September, South Africa’s manufacturing output experienced a modest increase of 0.3%, following a 1.5% decline in August. This growth was slightly below the market forecast of a 1.0% increase for the month. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose by 2.7 points, reaching 52.2 in September 2025 from 49.5 in August. This suggests a modest improvement in the business climate anticipated by manufacturers for September.

Producer Price Inflation

October 31, 2025

In September 2025, producer price inflation increased to 2.3%, up from 2.1% in August. On a monthly basis, however, producer prices declined slightly by 0.1%. Notably, costs for food and beverage production rose once again by 3.8%, contributing 1.1 percentage points to the monthly increase.

Producer Price Inflation

October 31, 2025

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

October 29, 2025

In September 2025, credit demand increased by 6.0%, slightly surpassing the previous month’s growth yet remaining just below the market expectation of 6.1%. Since the interest rate cuts began in September 2024, overall credit growth has gained momentum, with most subcategories recording increases from July to September 2025.

Consumer Inflation

October 23, 2025

In September 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a modest rise to 3.4%, slightly up from 3.3% in August, yet just below the analysts’ forecast of 3.5%.

Mining Production and Sales

October 15, 2025

In August 2025, mining activity in South Africa declined by 0.2% year-on-year, following a 5.1% increase in July.

Manufacturing Production

October 14, 2025

In August, South Africa’s manufacturing output further declined by 1.5%, following a 1.3% decrease in July. This downturn was significantly below market expectations, which had forecasted a 0.3% increase for August. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also fell by 1.4 points, from 50.8 in July to 49.5 in August 2025, indicating a less favourable business climate anticipated by manufacturers for the month.

Gold and Foreign Exchange

October 8, 2025

The South African International Liquidity Position, measured by Net Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves, showed growth in both USD and Rand terms for September 2025.

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

October 3, 2025

In August 2025, credit demand grew by 5.9%, slightly below the anticipated market prediction of 6.0% for the month. Since the initiation of interest rate cuts in September 2024, there has been a noticeable acceleration in overall credit growth, with most subcategories showing increases, particularly in July.

Internation Trade and Trade Balance

October 3, 2025

International trade measures South Africa’s demand for foreign goods and services relative to its demand for domestically produced products in the global market.

Producer Price Inflation

September 25, 2025

In August 2025, producer price inflation increased to 2.1%, up from 1.5% in July. On a monthly basis, producer prices rose by 0.3%. Notably, costs for food and beverage production surged by 4.3%, contributing 1.3 percentage points to the monthly increase.

Consumer Inflation

September 17, 2025

In August 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced a modest increase to 3.3%, down slightly from 3.5% in July. This was marginally below analysts’ forecast of 3.6% for the month.

Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves

September 15, 2025

The South African International Liquidity Position, as indicated by Net Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves, saw a slight increase in both USD and Rand terms for August 2025. The Rand remained relatively stable from July to August, according to official reports from the South African Reserve Bank. Reserves increased by approximately USD 750,000, following a USD 73 million decrease in July 2025. The high gold price continued to positively influence reserves from July through to August 2025, with gold remaining 35.4% higher than the same period in 2024.

Gross Opertating Surpluss

September 15, 2025

Company profitability is a critical concern for both investors and the government. Investors assess the potential returns they can expect, while the government evaluates the effects of policy changes on tax revenue and the overall economy.

Manufacturing Production

September 12, 2025

In July 2025, South Africa’s manufacturing output decreased by 0.7%, slightly below market expectations of a 0.6% decline. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased by 2.3 points, rising from 48.5 in June to 50.8 in July 2025. This suggests manufacturers anticipated a more favourable business climate for that month but didn’t materialise.

Mining Production and Sales

September 12, 2025

In July 2025, mining activity in South Africa increased by 4.4% year-on-year, following a 2.5% rise in June.

South Economic Performance

September 10, 2025

South Africa’s economy experienced a commendable growth rate of 0.8% in the second quarter of 2025, exceeding the anticipated 0.5% expansion. This achievement occurred despite persistent international trade tensions, the cessation of U.S. aid, and impending trade tariffs on South African exports to the U.S., which commenced on August 7. Positively impacting growth were factors such as the interest rate cut in January, a stronger rand, stable confidence levels, and consistent electricity supply.

International Trade and Trade Balance

September 2, 2025

International trade measures South Africa’s demand for foreign goods and services relative to its demand for domestically produced products in global markets. The country mainly exports raw materials, including base metals, gold, other precious metals, and minerals, while importing value-added products such as vehicles, chemicals, and machinery.

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

September 1, 2025

In July 2025, credit demand grew by 5.8%, surpassing market expectations of just 5.0% for the month. Since the interest rate cuts began in September 2024, overall credit growth has gained momentum, with most subcategories recording increases in July.

Producer Price Inflation

August 29, 2025

In July 2025, producer price inflation rose to 1.5%, up from 0.6% in June. On a monthly basis, producer prices increased by 0.7%. Notably, food and beverage production costs surged by 3.9%, contributing 1.1 percentage points to the monthly increase.

Consumer Inflation

August 20, 2025

In July 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a modest rise to 3.5%, up from 3.0% in June. This was slightly above the analysts’ forecast of 3.4% for the month.

Retail Sales Performance

August 14, 2025

Retail sales in South Africa grew by 1.6% in June, falling notably short of the market expectations of 3.0% as forecasted by analysts for the month. This modest growth suggests that consumer demand in the South African economy is beginning to slow, reflecting a cautious approach to spending amid ongoing economic pressures.

Mining Production and Sales

August 14, 2025

In June 2025, mining activity in South Africa increased by 2.4% year-on-year, following a modest 0.2% rise in May.

Employment Statistics

August 13, 2025

The employment statistics for the second quarter of 2025 show a varied landscape across different sectors, as illustrated in the table above. Certain sectors have experienced job growth compared to the first quarter of 2025, whereas others have seen a reduction in employment opportunities. The unemployment rate has increased slightly, moving from 32.9% in the previous quarter to 33.2% in the second quarter of 2025. However, the expanded unemployment rate has seen a slight decrease from 43.1% to 42.9% in the same period.

Producer Price Inflation

August 13, 2025

In June 2025, producer price inflation rose to 0.6%, up from the 0.1% recorded in May. On a monthly basis, producer prices increased by 0.2%. Notably, costs for food and beverage production rose by 4.0%, contributing 1.2 percentage points to the monthly increase.

Manufactuting Production

August 12, 2025

In June 2025, South Africa’s manufacturing output increased by 1.9%, marginally exceeding market expectations of 1.8% for the month. Notably, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) saw a significant rise from 43.1 in May to 48.5 in June, suggesting an expected rebound in manufacturing activity for the month.

Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves

August 11, 2025

The South African International Liquidity Position, indicated by Net Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves, declined slightly in both USD and Rand terms for July 2025. The Rand strengthened by 10 cents against the US Dollar in July, following a 30-cent appreciation in the previous month. Reserves decreased by approximately USD 73 million, after nearly a USD 400 million increase in June 2025. The high gold price continued to positively influence reserves for July, with gold remaining 36.3% higher than the same month in 2024.

International Trade and Trade Balance

August 4, 2025

International trade measures South Africa’s demand for foreign goods and services relative to its demand for domestically produced products in global markets. The country primarily exports raw materials, including base metals, gold, precious metals, and minerals, while importing value-added products such as vehicles, chemicals, and machinery.

Private Sector Credit Extension (PCSE)

July 29, 2025

In June 2025, credit demand increased by 5.0%, aligning with market expectations for the month. Since the interest rate cuts began in September 2024, overall credit growth has accelerated, with most subcategories showing increases during June.

Consumer Inflation

July 23, 2025

In June 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose slightly from 2.8% in May to 3.0%. This figure was marginally higher than the 2.9% forecasted by analysts for the month.

Retail Sales Performance

July 17, 2025

Retail sales in South Africa increased by 4.2% in May, slightly below the market expectation of 4.3% as estimated by analysts for the month. This growth appears to suggest that demand in the South African economy from a consumer’s perspective have rebounded somewhat after a 5.2% increase in April. The consecutive increases in April and May suggest a slow but steady recovery in consumer demand, following the interest rate reductions initiated with monetary easing beginning in September 2024.

Mining Production and Sales

July 16, 2025

In May 2025, mining activities in South Africa showed a modest increase of 0.2%, following a revised 7.5% decline in April. This slight improvement was primarily driven by a 12.5% rise in iron ore production, which contributed 1.7 percentage points to the month’s overall growth. The main factors negatively impacting mining production growth were manganese ore, which fell by 13.0% and reduced growth by 1.0 percentage point, and coal, which decreased by 4.6%, also subtracting 1.0 percentage point from total mining activity.

Manufacturing Production

July 15, 2025

In May 2025, South Africa’s manufacturing output saw a slight increase of 0.5%, rebounding from a 6.4% decline in April. This surpassed most analysts’ expectations, who had predicted a 3.0% contraction. However, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) decreased further, dropping from 44.7 in April to 43.1 in May, indicating growing concerns among manufacturers.

Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves

July 9, 2025

The South African International Liquidity Position, represented by Net Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves, increased in USD terms but slightly declined in Rand terms due to the Rand’s appreciation against the Dollar in June 2025. The Rand strengthened by nearly 30 cents against the Dollar in June, following a 60-cent appreciation in the previous month. Reserves rose by approximately $412 million, following a nearly $500 million increase in May 2025. This growth was partly driven by a 40.6% year-over-year increase in gold prices in June 2025 compared to the same month in 2024.

International Trade and Trade Balance

July 7, 2025

International trade measures South Africa’s demand for foreign goods and services compared to its demand for domestically produced products in global markets. The country primarily exports raw materials such as base metals, gold, precious metals, and minerals, while importing value-added products like vehicles, chemicals, and machinery.

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

June 30, 2025

In May 2025, credit demand grew by 5.0%, slightly exceeding April’s 4.6% and surpassing market expectations of 3.0%. Since interest rate cuts began in September 2024, overall credit growth has gathered momentum, with most subcategories recording increases during May.

Producer Price Inflation

June 26, 2025

In May 2025, producer price inflation saw a small annual increase of 0.1%, down from 0.5% in April 2025. On a monthly basis, producer prices contracted by 0.3%. Notably, costs for food and beverage production rose by 3.7%, accounting for 1.1 percentage points of the monthly increase.

Consumer Inflation

June 20, 2025

In May 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained steady at 2.8%, unchanged from April. This figure was slightly above the 2.7% forecasted by analysts for the month.

Mining Production and Sales

June 13, 2025

In April 2025, mining activities in South Africa experienced a 7.7% decline, following a revised 2.5% decrease in March 2025.

Manufacturing Production

June 11, 2025

In April 2025, South Africa’s manufacturing output declined by 6.3%, following a 1.2% decrease in March—exceeding most analyst forecasts of a 2.8% contraction for April. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from 48.7 in March to 44.7 in April, reflecting growing manufacturer apprehension.

Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves

June 10, 2025

The South African International Liquidity Position, reflected by Net Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves, grew in USD terms but came slightly down in Rand terms due to the appreciation of the Rand against the Dollar in May 2025. The Rand appreciated by nearly 60c against the Dollar during the month, reserves increased by around $500 million, boosted by a monthly growth of 0.7% and an annual growth of 40.5% compared to the 2024 price for gold in the month of May.

International Trade and Trade Balance

June 5, 2025

International trade measures South Africa’s demand for foreign goods and services compared to the demand for domestically produced products in global markets. The country mainly exports raw materials such as base metals, gold, precious metals, and minerals, while importing value-added products like vehicles, chemicals, and machinery.

Gross Operating Surplus

June 4, 2025

South Africa Economic Performance

June 3, 2025

South Africa’s economy grew by 0.1% in Q1 of 2025, surpassing expectations of a 1.3% contraction. This modest growth occurred despite international trade tensions, US aid suspension, and tariffs. Positively, the interest rate cut in January, a stronger rand, stable confidence levels, and consistent electricity supply contributed to the gains.

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

May 30, 2025

In April 2025, credit demand increased by 4.6%, slightly below March’s 5.8% but above market expectations of 3.25%. Overall, credit growth has gained momentum since interest rate cuts began in September 2024, with most subcategories showing enhancements.

Producer Price Inflation

May 29, 2025

In April 2025, producer price inflation experienced another modest annual increase of 0.5%, unchanged from March 2025. Notably, food and beverage production costs grew by 4.7%, contributing 1.4 percentage points to this increase.

Retail Sales Performance

May 26, 2025

Retail sales in South Africa increased by 1.5% in March, falling short of the market expectation of 2.0%. This modest growth indicates a slower-than-expected recovery in consumer demand since late 2024, particularly following a weak economic starting point earlier in the year.

Consumer Inflation

May 21, 2025

In April 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased marginally from 2.7% in March to 2.8%. This was slightly below the 2.9% forecasted by analysts for the month.

Employment Statistics in South Africa

May 14, 2025

The employment statistics for the first quarter of 2025 present a mixed picture across different sectors, as detailed in the table above. Some sectors experienced increased employment compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, while others saw a decline in job opportunities during this period. Overall, the unemployment rate edged higher from 31.9% in the previous quarter to 32.9% in Q1 2025. Meanwhile, the expanded unemployment rate decreased slightly from 41.1% to 40.3% during the same timeframe.

Manufacturing Production

May 9, 2025

In March 2025, manufacturing production in South Africa declined by 0.8%, following a 3.2% contraction in February. This decrease contrasted with the upward movement in the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which rose from 44.7 in February to 48.7 in March.

Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves

May 8, 2025

The African International Liquidity Position, reflected by Net Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves, grew in both USD and Rand terms as of April 2025. Despite a nearly 60c Rand depreciation against the dollar, reserves increased, boosted by a 4.7% rise in gold prices, which remain 41.4% higher than in 2024.

International Trade and Trade Balance

May 7, 2025

International trade measures South Africa’s demand for foreign goods and services against the demand for domestically produced goods in global markets. The country primarily exports raw materials such as base metals, gold, precious metals, and minerals, while importing value-added products like vehicles, chemicals, and machinery.

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

April 30, 2025

In March 2025, credit demand rose by 3.5%, a slight decrease from 3.7% in February and below market expectations of 3.9%. While growth was observed across most subcategories, overall credit demand remains relatively low, despite recent interest rate cuts in November and January.

Producer Price Inflation

April 25, 2025

In March 2025, producer price inflation experienced a modest annual increase of 0.5%, down from the 1.0% rise in February. Notably, food and beverage production costs grew by 4.1%, contributing 1.2 percentage points to this increase. Although deflation persists in several categories, significant annual declines were recorded in products like coke, petroleum, chemicals, rubber, and plastics, which fell by 4.1% from a 1.8% drop in February. Transport equipment also decreased by 6.7%, petrol by 7.7%, and parts for transport equipment by 6.7%.

Consumer Inflation

April 23, 2025

In March 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 2.7% from 3.2% in February, under the 3.0% forecast.

Retail Sales Performance

April 16, 2025

Mining Production and Sales

April 16, 2025

In February 2025, mining activities in South Africa saw a significant decline of 9.6%, following a revised decrease of 1.5% in January 2025.

Manufacturing Production

April 10, 2025

In February 2025, manufacturing production in South Africa declined by 3.2%, mirroring a similar contraction of 3.2% in January. This decrease was anticipated, as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped from 45.3 in January to 44.7 in February.

Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves

April 7, 2025

The African International Liquidity Position, indicated by Net Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves, experienced growth in both U.S. dollar and Rand terms as of March 2025.

Manufacturing Production

March 27, 2025

Manufacturing production in South Africa decreased by 3.3% in January 2025, following a 1.2% contraction in December 2024. This decline was anticipated, as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slipped from 46.2 in December to 45.3 in January.

Mining Production and Sales

March 27, 2025

In January 2025, mining activities in South Africa experienced a 2.7% decline, following a 2.4% decrease in December.

Retail Sales Performance

March 20, 2025

Retail sales in South Africa significantly surpassed market expectations in January 2025, rising by 7.0% year-on-year, well above the anticipated contraction of 1.8%. This unexpected growth suggests a resurgence in consumer demand, particularly notable as it follows a low base in 2024.

Consumer Inflation

March 20, 2025

In February 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady at 3.2%, mirroring January’s figure and slightly below the anticipated 3.3%.

A View on Company Profits

March 6, 2025

Company profitability is vital for investors and the government. In South Africa, the Gross Operating Surplus (GOS) indicates positive growth, with profits surpassing inflation in late 2024. Notable gains in the Agricultural sector (68.8%) contrast with modest growth in Mining and Personal Services, reflecting an optimistic economic outlook post-election.

GDP, Economic Growth and Inflation

March 4, 2025

The South African economy showed resilience with a 0.6% growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, despite challenges. Key sectors like Agriculture and Finance thrived, and improved consumer demand signals optimism for 2025. With continued market confidence and government reforms, there is potential for significant economic advancement ahead.

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

March 3, 2025

In January 2025, credit demand rose by 4.6%, exceeding expectations, although overall demand is still modest. Interest rate cuts are expected to enhance property and asset purchases as disposable incomes improve. As consumers increasingly rely on credit, overall demand for goods and fixed assets is poised to rise throughout 2025

Producer Price Inflation

March 3, 2025

In January 2025, producer price inflation rose modestly to 1.1%, with food and beverage costs contributing significantly. Despite ongoing deflation in some sectors, overall trends indicate contained costs, supporting stable inflation expectations. This bodes well for consumer inflation, suggesting a stable economic outlook as we move into 2025.

Consumer Inflation

February 27, 2025

In January 2025, South Africa’s CPI data showed revised weightings, highlighting increased importance for food, water, and electricity. While inflation rose to 3.2%, it remains manageable. A recent 25 basis point interest rate cut by the MPC signals potential further reductions, offering hope for consumers, and stimulating economic demand.

Retail Sales Performance

February 24, 2025

In December 2024, South Africa’s retail sales rose 3.1% year-on-year, surpassing expectations and indicating a rebound in consumer demand. The SACCI Business Confidence Index also increased, and recent interest rate cuts promise to further stimulate demand. Overall, this positive momentum supports economic growth heading into 2025.

Employment Statistics in South Africa

February 18, 2025

The fourth quarter of 2024 shows promising employment trends in South Africa, with the unemployment rate falling from 32.1% to 31.9%. Formal non-agricultural jobs increased by 132,000, reflecting renewed economic confidence and a stable electricity supply, contributing to a more hopeful labour market.

Mining Production and Sales

February 14, 2025

In December 2024, South Africa’s mining sector faced a slight decline of 2.4%, primarily due to drops in PGMs and gold. However, manganese ore and coal showed growth, contributing positively. Despite challenges, the sector remains crucial, employing 484,000 people and benefitting from supportive government efforts.

Manufacturing Production

February 13, 2025

In 2024, South Africa’s manufacturing production declined by 1.2%, driven by lower output in key sectors, including motor vehicles and metal products. However, the food and beverages sector showed strong growth. Despite challenges, the sector remains vital, employing 1.6 million people. Business owners are cautiously optimistic, awaiting clarity on policy and potential investment opportunities.

Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves for January 2025, Aluma Capital

South African Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves

February 7, 2025

In January 2025, South Africa’s liquidity position increased, with gold and foreign exchange reserves rising despite a slight Rand depreciation. The boost in gold prices and stable commodity values bode well for inflation expectations. While external factors may create volatility, key commodities support a positive economic outlook going forward

International Trade and Trade Balance

February 5, 2025

South Africa recorded a trade balance surplus of R15.46 billion in December 2024, where exports exceeded imports. While annual figures showed declines for both, there is optimism for 2025 as lower interest rates and easing infrastructure bottlenecks could enhance trade activity and support economic growth.

Producer Price Inflation

February 3, 2025

In December 2024, South Africa’s producer price inflation increased by 0.7%, with food and beverage costs rising by 4.2%. While some sectors show deflation, particularly in petroleum and chemicals, overall trends indicate stable inflation expectations. With controlled production costs, low consumer inflation is anticipated as we move into 2025.

Interest Rate Cut | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

25 Basis Point Cut Interest Rate Cut

January 30, 2025

The interest rate has been cut by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations. The Reserve Bank remains cautiously optimistic, forecasting contained inflation and an economic growth projection of 2.0% in the medium term. Increased disposable income and stable electricity supply are positive signs, despite some supply challenges in mining and manufacturing.

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

January 30, 2025

In 2024, South Africa saw a 4.0% increase in credit extended by financial institutions, with December demand rising by 3.8%. While credit demand remains low, the 50-basis point interest rate cut should boost property and fixed asset purchases, enhancing disposable income and overall demand as we progress into 2025.

Retail Sales Bag | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Retail Sales Performance

January 23, 2025

In November 2024, South Africa’s retail sales rose by 7.7%, surpassing the 5.5% forecast, indicating a resurgence in consumer demand, particularly during Black Friday. The SACCI Business Confidence Index increased, and potential interest rate cuts could further boost spending. Overall, this positive trend supports economic growth as the country moves into 2025.

Consumer Inflation

January 22, 2025

In December, South Africa’s inflation increased slightly to 3.0%, driven primarily by rising costs in housing, services, and food. Despite these pressures, the Monetary Policy Committee’s recent rate cut of 25 basis points may ease financial burdens on consumers. Positive market sentiment and improved electricity supply suggest a stable inflation outlook ahead.

Excavator Mining | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Mining Production and Sales

January 21, 2025

South Africa’s mining production fell by 0.9% in November 2024, with declines in gold, iron ore, coal, and diamonds. However, sectors like Platinum Group Metals and chromium ore showed growth. Mineral sales rose by 8.1%, driven by significant increases in gold and coal sales, reflecting a recovering and resilient mining sector poised for future stability and growth.

Featured Sales | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

A View on Demand in the Economy: Retail Sales Performance

December 13, 2024

In 2024, South Africa’s retail sales rose by 6.3%, significantly surpassing the expected 2.1% increase, indicating a rebound in consumer demand. Key contributors included substantial growth in general dealers and household goods. Lower inflation and a potential interest rate cut could further enhance consumer optimism and spending moving forward.

Inflation Featured | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Consumer Inflation

December 13, 2024

Inflation in South Africa rose slightly from 2.8% in October to 2.9% in November, driven mainly by housing and utilities, food, and miscellaneous goods. Despite price increases, there are signs of slowing growth. The MPC’s recent 25 basis point interest rate cut may ease financial pressures on consumers, supporting future demand and economic momentum.

Manufacturing image | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Manufacturing Production

December 13, 2024

In 2024, South Africa’s manufacturing production rose by 0.8%, following a 1.4% increase in September. Key contributors included significant growth in petroleum, food, and basic iron and steel sectors. Despite a decline in the motor vehicle sector, the manufacturing industry remains vital, employing 1.6 million people and driving economic growth.

Mining Equipment | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Mining Production and Sales

December 10, 2024

Mining South Africa rose by 1.4% in October 2024, building on a solid 4.9% growth from September. Key contributors included significant increases in iron ore, platinum group metals, and diamonds. Mineral sales also increased by 1.6%. Despite some challenges, the sector is rebounding strongly, supporting over 484,000 jobs. With improved economic confidence and a focus on stabilising production, the future looks promising for South Africa’s mining industry.

South African Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves

December 6, 2024

In 2024, South Africa’s International Liquidity Position showed a decline in U.S. dollar reserves but a slight increase in rand terms due to the rand’s depreciation. Gold reserves dropped following a 4.5% price decrease, though prices remain significantly higher than last year. Key commodities provide insights into inflation and potential interest rate decisions by the South African Reserve Bank in January 2025. However, the return of former President Trump may create volatility for the rand amid potential shifts in economic policy.

Coins on Table | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Gross Operating Surplus

December 6, 2024

Company is crucial for investors and the government, influencing investment potential and tax revenue. The latest data from Statistics South Africa shows a 2.9% quarterly decrease in Gross Operating Surplus (GOS) but a 4.5% annual increase, indicating profitability growth. Notably, sectors like mining and transport exceeded inflation rates, signaling positive market sentiment and potential for increased investment in South Africa over the medium to long term.

South African Economic Performance

December 6, 2024

South’s economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.3% in Q3 2024, with six out of ten sectors growing. The agricultural sector significantly declined by 28.8%. Positively, manufacturing and finance showed growth, contributing to overall resilience. However, consumer demand and elevated prices in the economy remain concerns, while expected growth for 2024 is estimated at just 0.7%. Addressing policy clarity and structural reforms could enhance business confidence and stimulate growth.

Sector Credit Card Image | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

November 29, 2024

In October 2024, credit extended by South African financial institutions rose by 4.3%, with increasing demand in most categories, despite remaining low overall. Recent interest rate cuts totaling 50 basis points may enhance property and fixed asset purchases in 2025 as consumers gain more disposable income, potentially boosting overall demand.

Man looking at Pricing increase October 2024 | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Producer Price Inflation

November 28, 2024

Producer Price Inflation in South Africa saw a deflation of 0.7% in October 2024, exceeding analysts’ expectations. This decline was driven by significant price drops in coke, petroleum, and related products. While overall inflation may remain low in the short term, rising costs for intermediate goods and administered prices raise concerns. Persistently low inflation could lead to interest rate cuts, potentially boosting consumer and business demand in 2025.

Interest Rate % | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Another 25 Basis Point Interest Rate Cut

November 21, 2024

The South African Reserve Bank cut the interest rate by 25 basis points, contrary to some expectations for a larger reduction. Inflation remains within the target range of 3% to 6%, and positive signs for growth include rising confidence and stable electricity supply. Despite subdued manufacturing production, increased disposable income supports demand, contributing to a gradual economic recovery.

Person holding retail Price Tag | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

A View on Demand in the Economy: Retail Sales Performance

November 20, 2024

Retail sales in South Africa rose 0.9% in September 2024, surpassing expectations of a 0.7% decline, signalling a modest recovery in consumer demand. Growth was led by general dealers, while textiles and clothing stores saw a 5.5% contraction. Despite tight budgets, anticipated interest rate cuts could further boost consumer confidence and demand.

Retail Cash Till | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Consumer Inflation

November 20, 2024

Inflation in South Africa fell from 3.8% in September to 2.8% in October 2024, with monthly deflation of 0.1%. Rising prices in housing, food, and services continue to strain household budgets. Positive news includes the US Fed’s rate cut, allowing for potential interest rate reductions by the SARB, which could boost demand and economic growth.

Mining Equipment Mining | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Manufacturing Production and Sales

November 15, 2024

South Africa’s mining production increased by 4.7% in September 2024, primarily driven by iron ore, PGMs, and manganese. Mineral sales rose 8.0%, led by significant gains in manganese and gold. Despite challenges in electricity supply and infrastructure, the sector is rebounding, supported by improved economic confidence.

Tire Conveyor Belt | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Manufacturing Production

November 13, 2024

In September 2024, South Africa’s manufacturing sector showed resilience despite a 0.8% annual decline, supported by a notable PMI increase. While challenges persist, sectors like food and beverages and petroleum products demonstrated growth, highlighting potential for recovery and ongoing job creation in this vital industry.

Homeless Person looking for Job | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Employment Statistics in South Africa

November 12, 2024

In Q3 2024, South Africa’s unemployment rate decreased from 33.5% to 32.1%, with the expanded rate falling to 41.9%. Formal non-agricultural employment rose by over 200,000, while 294,000 new jobs were created. Despite some sector losses, overall trends reflect a growing economic confidence and improved employment conditions.

South African Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves

November 7, 2024

In October 2024, South Africa’s International Liquidity Position improved in dollar terms, with gold reserves rising due to a 5.1% increase in gold prices. While foreign exchange reserves remained stable, the Rand showed slight volatility. Key commodities like gold and platinum signal positive trends for the mining industry, but potential geopolitical tensions and U.S. elections may impact future volatility and inflation expectations.

Private Sector Credit Extensions Graph | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE): October 2024

November 1, 2024

In September 2024, South Africa’s credit from financial institutions rose by 4.6%, nearing expectations, with strong demand for most credit types. Instalment credit sales grew by 0.5%, highlighting consumers’ adaptability amid rising living costs. Anticipated interest rate cuts may further enhance property and asset acquisition in the future!

Price Inflation Graph | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Producer Price Inflation

October 31, 2024

In September 2024, South Africa’s producer price inflation slowed to a 1.0% annual increase, down from 2.8% in August, with a monthly deflation of 0.3%. Key contributors included rising costs in food, beverage, and intermediate goods, while mining costs fell. Concerns remain over elevated water and electricity prices exceeding the SARB’s target range.

Consumer Inflation Report | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

CPI falling below forecasts

October 23, 2024

Inflation slowed markedly from 4.4% in August 2024 to 3.8% in September, slowing more aggressively than market expectations of 4.1%. Month-on-month growth was minimal at just 0.1%.

Retail Sales Change Graph | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

A View on Demand in the Economy: Retail Sales Performance

October 18, 2024

In August 2024, South Africa’s retail sales grew by 3.2% annually, exceeding the expected 1.0% increase. This indicates a positive shift in consumer demand, driven by lower inflation and improved economic sentiment. Growth was primarily led by general dealers, which posted a 4.6% rise, contributing 2.1 percentage points to the overall growth, while hardware retailers saw a decline of 4.5%.

Manufacturing Production

October 10, 2024

South Africa’s manufacturing production fell by 1.2% annually in August 2024, attributed to declines in motor vehicle and basic iron production. While food and beverages grew by 5.8%, businesses remain cautious, holding large cash reserves. Companies are waiting for the Government of National Unity to clarify industrial policies and implement promised reforms.

Mining Production Volume Difference Graph | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Mining Production and Sales

October 10, 2024

Mining South Africa rose by 0.3% in August 2024, led by increases in manganese, PGMs, and chromium ore. However, declines in iron ore and gold production tempered the growth. Mineral sales fell by 9.9% annually, driven by a sharp drop in gold sales. The sector remains crucial for the economy, employing around 457,000 people.

Gold Foreign Exchange Graph | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves

October 7, 2024

In a rapidly evolving global economy, understanding the dynamics of South Africa’s International Liquidity Position and commodity markets has never been more crucial. As we navigate rising inflation, fluctuating currency values, and geopolitical uncertainties, the implications for investors, businesses, and policymakers are profound. Discover how the recent trends in gold, oil, platinum, and coal are shaping the economic landscape and what the future holds for the rand and the broader South African market. Join us as we delve into the latest data and insights that could impact your financial decisions and strategies in the months ahead.

Private Sector Credit Extension Graph | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

September 30, 2024

In August 2024, South Africa saw a 5.0% rise in demand for credit, surpassing expectations of 4.0%. While instalment credit sales and loans showed growth amid increasing financial pressures, asset accumulation via mortgage advances remains low. The recent interest rate cut could stimulate demand for properties in the coming months.

Producer Price Inflation

September 26, 2024

Producer Price Inflation came increased by only 2.8%, much lower than market expectation of 4.0% for the month of August 2024. The lower-than-expected increase in producer inflation bode well for general inflation in the months to follow, but caution should be taken by the price increases in intermediate goods, especially price increases of administered goods and services such as water -and electricity prices and other municipal services that could affect inflation rates going forward.

Demand on Economic Graph | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Retail Sales Performance

September 23, 2024

Consumer Inflation Year Over Year Difference | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Consumer Inflation slowing down further

September 18, 2024

Business Consumer Confidence Graph | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Market Sentiment: Consumer Confidence

September 17, 2024

Gross Operating Surplus

September 12, 2024

Gross Operating Surplus impacts both investors’ returns and government tax revenue, influencing policy decisions and the broader economy.

Silver Coins on Statistic Paper | Aluma Capital (Pty) Ltd

Producer Price Inflation

August 29, 2024

Producer price inflation was just released by Stats SA and moderated even further than most market analysts expected for the month of July. This moderation in producer inflation bodes well for overall inflation in the economy and interest rate decisions that the SARB may take in the following months to come.

Private Equity: Growth

Private Equity: Income

Private Equity: Flexi Access

Fixed Return Growth Portfolio

Fixed Return Income Portfolio

USD Offshore Global Note

Market Overviews

Producer Price Inflation

Retail Sales Performance

Consumer Inflation

Mining Production and Sales

Manufacturing Production

Producer Price Inflation

Producer Price Inflation

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

Consumer Inflation

Mining Production and Sales

Manufacturing Production

Gold and Foreign Exchange

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

Internation Trade and Trade Balance

Producer Price Inflation

Consumer Inflation

Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves

Gross Opertating Surpluss

Manufacturing Production

Mining Production and Sales

South Economic Performance

International Trade and Trade Balance

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

Producer Price Inflation

Consumer Inflation

Retail Sales Performance

Mining Production and Sales

Employment Statistics

Producer Price Inflation

Manufactuting Production

Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves

International Trade and Trade Balance

Private Sector Credit Extension (PCSE)

Consumer Inflation

Retail Sales Performance

Mining Production and Sales

Manufacturing Production

Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves

International Trade and Trade Balance

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

Producer Price Inflation

Consumer Inflation

Mining Production and Sales

Manufacturing Production

Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves

International Trade and Trade Balance

Gross Operating Surplus

South Africa Economic Performance

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

Producer Price Inflation

Retail Sales Performance

Consumer Inflation

Employment Statistics in South Africa

Manufacturing Production

Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves

International Trade and Trade Balance

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

Producer Price Inflation

Consumer Inflation

Retail Sales Performance

Mining Production and Sales

Manufacturing Production

Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves

Manufacturing Production

Mining Production and Sales

Retail Sales Performance

Consumer Inflation

A View on Company Profits

GDP, Economic Growth and Inflation

Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE)

Producer Price Inflation

Consumer Inflation

Retail Sales Performance